Six Nations Betting / Cormac O'Keeffe / 20 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Ireland have been waiting 61 years for Grand Slam glory, a wait that may come to an end this weekend. But it could be a tighter game than some are suggesting writes Cormac O'Keefe...

At the start of this year's Six Nations Championship we all hoped, and some of us predicted, that Ireland's Grand Slam dream would still be alive by the time they met Wales in Cardiff. Some had predicted that both sides would be going for a Grand Slam but Wales have the second prize of the championship and Triple Crown to play for. The latter will go to the winner on the day whereas Wales need to win by at least 13 points to retain their championship crown.

There is also the added dimension of Lions places up for grabs as Saturday will see rivals for starting jerseys going head-to-head none more interesting than Heaslip v Powell, Kearney v Byrne and O' Gara v Jones.

Ireland haven't fared too well in recent years in big games against Wales but have won three out of the four games at the Millennium Stadium between the sides. Furthermore, Munster players will have fond memories of visits to Cardiff as it was in the Millennium stadium that they clinched both of their Heineken Cups under Declan Kidney.

This match is, to all intents and purposes, a cup final. Ireland won't be happy to lose by less than 13 points and win the championship - Grand Slam glory is the goal. Not that you'd know that from listening to Kidney. In classic Kidney style he has attempted to take the pressure off his players by suggesting that this is just another game and that Wales are favourites given that they are reigning Grand Slam champions and have home advantage.

Wales on the other hand have been far from diplomatic with Warren Gatland saying that the Welsh players dislike the Irish team more than any other and along with Rob Howley suggested that Ireland will crack under the pressure of the occasion. Further comments from Ryan Jones and Lee Byrne respectively stating that Wales will exploit O' Gara's defensive frailties and that Ireland "haven't set the world alight" will not garner a response from Kidney but will surely fire Ireland up nonetheless.

Gatland and Howley may be right that Ireland have cracked under the weight of expectation in the past but that was before the arrival of Kidney. The Cork man had the knack of winning almost all crucial tight games with Munster and this Ireland side has done likewise with three hard-fought wins against France, England, and Scotland.

This game will also be close but I think Ireland will come out on top. It won't be the try fest that some people predict and the longer it stays close the more Wales will give up on the idea of a 13 point-plus victory. Ireland's hunger will be greater at that stage given the fact that they are fighting for a greater prize - and one that has eluded them for so long. O' Leary's inclusion ahead of Stringer is aimed to counteract the strength of Mike Phillips and keep the game tight. If Ireland need an additional attacking edge towards the end then Stringer's snappy passing should do the trick.

Both teams have exciting backs and the game could be decided by a moment of magic or madness but the key for Ireland is to compete with the Welsh scrum which may look more like the awesome machine that destroyed Scotland than the shambles that struggled against Italy. If Ireland can get parity at the scrum and continue to impress in the lineout then the 61-year wait for Grand Slam glory will be over by 7.30 on Saturday evening. The first half could be a case of swapping penalties and thus the 25s available on draw/Ireland in the HT-FT market may be worth a punt (minimum bet).

Recommended Bets:

Ireland @ [2.32]
Under 38.5 points @ [1.8]
Under 3.5 tries @ [1.8]
Draw/Ireland @ [25.0]