Six Nations Betting / Paul Moon / 20 March 2009 / 5 Comments

Paul Moon says that Wales fans have been in contemplative mood this week - like a fisherman after the one that got away. But will their team rally themselves for a thrilling Six Nations' finale in Cardiff on Saturday?

The team selection for Rome proved to be an error of judgement, particularly regarding the captaincy.

The Welsh know they have the best team in the Six Nations Championship and believe they will beat Ireland at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday but the problem is winning by 13 points or more. This makes for the most intriguing and exciting match of the year.

It would defy logic if Ireland were to make history with just a 'decent' side and on that basis they must not and will not land the Grand Slam. Latest Betfair prices accurately reflects the result of the match: Wales [1.83] Ireland [2.32] Draw [38].

However, Wales find themselves sitting on the horns of a dilemma. Do they attack the Irish from the start or do they build momentum and hope the Irish implode under their own immense pressure as they chase their first Grand Slam since 1948?

The only Irish plan is to kick for territory and gain penalties within distance so surely the Welsh will kick less, retain the ball and build up the phases? Worryingly, Lee Byrne refused to apologise for poor kicking against Italy with a promise of more to come. The coach contradicted this, claiming he was dismayed by the amount of kicking.

Clearly, the Welsh have underperformed in the last two matches. Last week, the reserve forwards proved they were not up to scratch so props Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones, hooker Matthew Rees, lock Ian Gough, flanker Martyn Williams are all recalled.

Fly-half James Hook was given another chance to show his talent but he influenced nothing, showing no signs of nous or of the decibels needed for that position. it's a relief to see Stephen Jones reclaim his shirt.

Tom Shanklin and Gavin Henson have been handed the chance to extend their remarkable Six Nations record of 10 successive wins in matches they have started together, including the Grand Slam triumphs of 2005 and 2008. The statisticians among us remember that Henson has never failed to win against a Northern Hemisphere team when he has been in the starting line-up. Experienced Mark Jones keeps out youngster Leigh Halfpenny on the right wing.

This week the Wales coach would have thought carefully about his choice of words so it was a surprise when he increased the tension by reminding us how much Munster and the Ospreys loathe each other! I am not sure who will be motivated most by verbal sledging but Warren Gatland knows his players best.

I was interested to learn that this side boasts 707 caps in total, a massive increase on the 397 accumulated by the controversial XV chosen for Rome. This week's back-line could hardly be more experienced averaging 49 caps a man. This Welsh squad also has the advantage of having been in this situation before, following the final weekend victories over Ireland in 2005 and France last year.

The local consensus is that playing at home in front of 74,500 people will ensure a win but by fewer than the required 13 points. That will not stop the nation roaring them.