Six Nations Betting / Paul Moon / 13 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Paul Moon reports from across the border where the word in the valleys is that Warren Gatland has one eye on the World Cup. However, the reigning Six Nations champions need to make a big score against Italy and fans will be keen to see what the dream ticket in the centre can offer.

Warren Gatland has surprised all and pleased many in Wales with his 10 team changes for Saturday's trip to Rome's Stadio Flaminio.

The back-line looks full of points and should help to erase the memory of that below par performance in France.

The new additions to the side have been told that a good individual performance will put them in the frame for a winner-takes-all Triple Crown and Six Nations title decider against Ireland at the Millennium Stadium on 14 March 2009. At the same time there is clear evidence of Gatland preparing for the World Cup as he confidently utilises the strength and depth of his squad.

Accusations of showing disrespect to the Italians are way off the mark! Wales have selected a heavier forward line to counter a powerful Italian pack and a faster back-line to punish the weaker linkage of the Italians.

Budding star Alun Wyn Jones (23) will captain Wales with Ryan Jones on the bench where Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Mike Phillips, Stephen Jones and Tom Shanklin will join him. Martyn Williams, Adam Jones, Ian Gough and Leigh Halfpenny have a day off and drop out of the team altogether.

The new front row will be John Yapp, Huw Bennett and Rhys Thomas. Bradley Davies is the replacement second row, Jon Thomas at blind side and Dafydd Jones at number seven completes the changes for the forwards. Mark Jones returns to the wing.

The most exciting changes are in the backs where 'dream ticket' duo Gavin Henson and Jamie Roberts are paired up at centre. Fly-half James Hook reunites with fellow Osprey Mike Phillips as half-back partners and this reckons to be the most open and attacking of formations. With Shane Williams, Mark Jones and Lee Byrne honing a fine edge this promises to be 'total back line' rugby!

Some say the Azzurri should not be underestimated on their home turf in Rome and that Wales must nullify Italy's scrum power before the Welsh public's thirst for tries can be quenched. Maybe but I do not subscribe to the view that an upset is possible. Sergio Parisse and injured Andrea Masi apart, this is a poor Italian side with a poor Italian coach!

The lesson learnt from the France game was that expectations rose whilst workrate dipped. The mantra coming out of the valleys this week is "accuracy and precision realigned with the team ethic."

Italy's three winless games have conceded 100 points with 12 tries and you have to expect Wales to at least maintain that average. I fully expect the superior fitness and skill of the Welsh to result in heavy scoring late on. Latest Betfair odds accurately reflect the match: Italy [13.5] Wales [1.09] Draw [75].

The most intriguing part of this game concerns the Henson and Roberts' partnership. Henson's brilliance at straightening up the Welsh line and his world class offloading, where he releases the ball a millisecond before inviting the tackle, will reap the rewards for his team-mates. Success in this game could set an important precedent for the future of the Welsh back-line. Fitness allowing I am sure that both will play against Ireland in the crunch match!

The view from the valleys is that nothing less than a resounding win will do and we remain convinced that we are the best team in the Six Nations!