Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Italy

Six Nations Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 February 2009 / Leave a comment

Scotland and Italy have made life difficult for themselves so far and coaches of both sides have stressed the need to maintain discipline in what promises to be a close-fought Wooden Spoon decider. Geoffrey Riddle offers a composed assessment of the best bets...

If the comments of both Frank Hadden and Nick Mallett are anything to go by then this weekend's Wooden Spoon decider between Scotland and Italy at Murrayfield will be squeaky clean. Welsh referee Nigel Owens could, in fact, take the day off because both coaches have said that maintaining discipline is the most important factor in this weekend's face-off.

Italy have conceded a monumental 27 penalties in their two matches against England and Ireland. Scotland are not too far behind with their haul of 24 in their games against Wales and France. Compare that to tournament pace-setters Ireland (14.0) and you get the impression that Scotland and Italy have been making life very difficult for themselves.

But what can Hadden change in a fortnight? Under his direction, Scotland average 15 penalties a game in the Six Nations and you have got to go back to the Ireland match in 2007 for the last time that the Scots conceded a single figure penalty count in this tournament. Italy's disciplinary record is not so bad, and they generally lurch from saints to sinners, depending on who they are playing and what they ate for dinner the night before.

So Scotland's discipline is unlikely to get significantly better ahead of a fixture that is generally regarded as one of the closest in the competition. This is often a desperate, dour encounter, and one that only momentarily sparked to life in 2007 when Italy raced to a 21-0 lead inside a crazy opening seven minutes. That match is the only one in the last six between these two teams which had a winning margin in double-figures. Punters who rate the home side can get [2.76] about Scotland winning by 1-12 points on Betfair.

Hadden has beefed up his squad by finally being able to call upon Euan Murray, an outside shot for the Lions tight-head spot. 'Talismanic' is a word that is generally over-used, but Murray certainly forms a focus for the Scottish pack to rally around. He has been instrumental this week and has brought a positivity to training. The Scottish pack, who were so strong at the set-piece in November, are ready to rock against the Azzurri.

Mallett also has the benefit of reinforcements though and two of his best players, Andrea Marcato and Marco Bortolami, return to the starting line-up. Mallett's howler at selecting Mauro Bergamasco at scrum-half in the first round of matches against England has clouded some people's judgment of his abilities as a coach. However, he is one of the most astute men in rugby, and selecting Marcato at full-back and Luke McLean at fly-half is something that Hadden should take note of. The pair will interchange for the full 80 minutes in a system which Hadden could employ more with Phil Godman and Chris Paterson.

As far as I can see, Scotland's strengths are not sufficiently adaptable to the challenge that Italy will pose. To strike out and take this game by the scruff of the neck, despite their good record of scoring early points, is likely to be beyond them. A day of hard graft awaits.

Scotland's scrum will be matched by one of world rugby's most under-rated eights, and Italy's blitz defence will hope to ensure that, once again, the Evans brothers do not see enough ball in ratio to the possession that Scotland enjoy.

Italy have won on the bookmakers' main handicap line in all six clashes against Scotland since the 2003 World Cup in Australia. They were around 11-13 point underdogs on the two occasions that they came to Murrayfield, but Betfair have given them an intriguing start of 8.5 points for those who want to support Italy - not enough for three penalties, but suitable for a converted try. As a guide, most regular fixed-odds bookmakers go 9-10 points.

It's difficult to envisage anything else other than a turgid, thuggish, low-scoring arm-wrestle with a narrow Scottish win thrown in at the end. Neither seems to have built on what looked a promising autumn when Scotland almost turned over South Africa, and Italy gave Australia a fright. If this is the case, it is a shame for the rugby purist. For those who like to study the form and rely on statistics for betting profit on the other hand, it will be another financial blessing in a difficult economic time.