Six Nations Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 13 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle wonders if Wales' bruised egos can do enough against Italy to heal themselves in time for a potential Six Nations decider against Ireland next week...

Warren Gatland mixed things up a bit last week by naming his side early to face Italy in Rome. He was in a forthright mood and wasn't scared of telling anyone who would listen that his squad had received some home truths after their defeat to France.

"We had a really hard, honest review session and the players did take a lot on board," Gatland said. "There were some bruised egos, particularly as the players said that physically their win against England was tougher than the loss against France. That was disappointing. I don't think we were as much on edge in Paris."

Gatland has made 10 changes to the side and, while punters may think that this weakens the reigning champions, the assignment in Rome presents an opportunity for those players not in the starting line-up to make a real impression. Although this is often said, very few coaches actually mean it, but you get the idea from Gatland that if a player plays well, he stays in the side.

Gatland was also confident enough to say what everyone was thinking: "To be honest, we wouldn't have made this many changes against any of the other Six Nations countries," he said.
It is easy to see why Gatland has tinkered with his starting line-up against the Azzurri, although some punters who have backed the Welsh to win the tournament at prices as big as [4.9] must be feeling slightly uneasy. Wales trail Ireland's points-difference total by 23 points, and a thumping win in Rome would dramatically increase their chances of taking this year's title. The Welsh currently trade at [2.78] to win the Six Nations.

I would suggest that Wales's chances of repeating their 38-8 victory in the Eternal City in 2005 have not been watered down by Gatland's selection policy. In some respects, you might even argue that Wales are stronger in certain departments. James Hook has a more attacking vision at fly-half than Stephen Jones and the centre pairing of Jamie Roberts and Gavin Henson is something that Gatland has been eager to try since November. The lighthouse-tall Luke Charteris will do well to combat Italy's line-out, too.

Italy have been massively disappointing this season. They promised so much during their autumn campaign and under the ingenuity of Nick Mallett they were expected to thrive. But they haven't. They have conceded 12 tries and over 100 points in three games, they have scored only one try so far and they are yet to lead after 40 minutes under the South African coach. That's a record which stretches to 12 games, by the way.

Wales have a mixed record in Rome, but they fully merit their quote of [1.08] in the match betting market, which is the best price in the betting village. And as Italy have struggled to score early points this season, backing Wales to open the scoring looks an absolute steal. The Dragons have scored the first points of the match in their last five games, and as Italy have conceded a hatful of penalties this season, a penalty kick from Wales looks mighty value at anything over [2.5], especially when you consider how short they are to win this fixture. At current Betfair prices, Wales are around [1.66] to score the first points through either a penalty or a try if you backed both outcomes. Surely this should be around [1.5]?

That said, in-running punters must be wary of backing Wales in any match-outcome market too early. Italy were competitive last year in the Millennium Stadium for around 50 minutes before the Welsh cut loose to win 48-7, and Wales must guarantee victory before they think about points margins. Gatland said as much, although he did confess that "there may be the chance to look at the scoreboard and open up with 20 minutes remaining". Eagle-eyed punters may, therefore, find some in-running value during the second half in the handicap markets that give Italy a 16.5-point start, a 19.5-point start and even a 31.5-point start.