Six Nations Betting / Tony Calvin / 19 March 2009 / Leave a comment

A stout defence has served the Italians well and could make things tricky for the French, says Tony Calvin, and a trading approach could be the way to tackle this game...

If there is any side that the Italians have struggled against this decade, it is France.

The Betfair handicap line for this match is Italy +14.5, so what does recent history tell us?

France have won the last 10 meetings, and their margins of victory have been (with the most recent result last) as follows: 11-11-11-21-26-25-43-25-36-12.

So, with the exception of last year, it appears that France are the Six Nations team that can open up what is often a very solid and hard to break down Italian defence, as Wales found out when only edging a 20-15 win last week.

France may well cover the Betfair handicap line again this weekend, but they could well take their time to so.

With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise in the least were punters look to get with Italy on the various half-time markets; notably the interval handicap line, and look to lay France-France on the ht-ft time market at [1.33] - and possibly even back Italy-France at around the [9.0 mark.

The latter market is particularly interesting.

Italy dominated Wales in the first 40 minutes last week, and were value for far more than their 9-7 lead.

And in their only other home match in the Six Nations, Italy were leading Ireland 9-6 just before half-time, only to get a man harshly sent in to the bin and Ireland to score a converted try in the final play of the half to go in 13-9 up.

So it seems clear that the Italians can present a stern challenge on home soil - at least until the oranges come out in the dressing room.

And it is encouraging that Italy coach Nick Mallett has retained the same team that nearly upset Wales last week, eschewing the temptation to blood some youngsters for future reference, while France have made four changes to the side dismantled 29-0 in the first half by England at Twickenham.

Everything looked rosier in the French garden after their 21-16 defeat of Wales, but their confidence must have taken a real dent last week and if Italy can take an early lead and sit on it, then an upset could be on the cards.

Granted, Wales were [1.06] to beat Italy last week and you have to go to [1.16] in the match odds market to lay France (though the money for the heavy odds-on favourites tends to arrive near kick-off).

But as a trading angle, there are worse positions to take than an initial lay of the French at around the [1.16] mark near kick-off.