Six Nations Betting / Hugh Cahill / 13 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Never mind Cardiff next weekend and talk of a Grand Slam - this is a match Ireland will have to be at their best to win. Hugh Cahill is taking it one game at a time...

Games like this make champions. Sure, beating France and England in your back garden always helps and the Italians are tough on home soil, but this is a game Ireland could lose.

The last time the green army went to Murrayfield expecting a win in 2001, they came up desparately short. A repeat of that performance on Saturday and thoughts of winning the Grand Slam or Six Nations Championship are out of the window. Let me state now, however, that I believe Ireland will win this game and the spread at Ireland - 6.5 points at [1.88] on Betfair right now should be taken.

Declan Kidney said last week that he has never met a 'soft Scotsman' and he is expecting a really tough, gruelling encounter. Indeed the Scottish pack have the ability to stand toe to toe with the best in the business, so Ireland are going to have to front up right from the start.

Where this game will be won and lost, though, is in the backline. With that in mind, was Kidney right to tinker with winning formula and bring in Peter Stringer and Gordon Darcy? One thing I've noticed in the previous three games was how slow the ball was coming from the base of the ruck out to O'Gara. Tomas O'Leary would take that extra step, or extra second, before releasing the ball and this has cost us valuable time when running moves out wide and trying to split holes in the oppostition defence.

O'Leary is a strong runner, pacey, with a brilliant eye for defence - he's almost like an extra back row at times - but what Peter Stringer will give you crucially, is that whippped fast ball straight out the back line, allowing Ireland that extra second to create the gap. That could be crucial this weekend. Gordon Darcy in for Paddy Wallaced also makes sense. Not that Wallace has really done anything to warrant being dropped, but Darcy has been in flying form for Leinster - scoring a try against the Ospreys last week - and he has taken his chance when coming on as a sub for Ireland. He deserves his opportunity to start. He is also a stronger physcial presence on the field and when this match gets down to the intense battle we all expect, Darcy has the edge at centre to make an impact. Given his recent form, I also think a small punt on him to score Ireland's first try at [9.0] is not a bad bet.

It's interesting that Scotland coach Frank Hadden has decided to recall Chris Paterson to the team. He is Scotland's top scorer in the competition and a threat with the boot from almost anywhere inside the oppposition half. Hadden is fighting for his life in these final two games. The Scottish fans haven't been impressed by what they have seen on the pitch thus far and I think nothing short of victory against Ireland on Saturday will be enough to keep his job.

Scotland are still a young side and Hadden insists he is building for the future, but the lack of intensity about his team has to be a worry. If the players want their coach to stay on - and I believe they do - they need to fight for him this weekend. Scotland always seem to be able to up their performances against Ireland and I'm expecting them to do just that at Murrayfield and hit Ireland straight from the kick off. It also makes sense that Ireland will probaby be nevous in the first 10 minutes - there's a lot at stake here - and when a team gets nervous they tend not to think as clearly and make mistakes. On that basis, Scotland penalty first scoring play at [2.82] seems a decent proposition.

If Ireland were still in the old coaching regime, I'd be worried about our chances on Saturday. Fact is though, Declan Kidney is a proven winner. He has been at the highest level of European rugby, on the grandest stage, in front of the toughest opposition and has come out smiling.

He knows what it takes to go to Murrayfield and win. Ireland will not be complacent. The ghosts of 2001, while not directly applicable to many of this team, will still loom large in the memory. Defeat would be a disaster. I expect a tough, close game but overall, Ireland should have too much for a Scotland team that has struggled to make an impression in the Championship so far. Calm heads are needed, but with the experience of O'Driscoll, O'Connell, O'Gara - who will bounce back with the boot - and John Hayes - who will become Irelands most capped player with 93 when he lines out - Ireland should have all the equipment necessary to come away with their fourth win and set up a Grand slam match with Wales in Cardiff. Final punt; Ireland half time full time @ [1.73].