Six Nations Betting / Paul Moon / 26 February 2009 / 3 Comments

Paul Moon believes that France are going backwards under Marc Lievremont and predicts that Wales will silence the home crowd in Paris on Friday night.

Demanding Welsh supporters seems to have come to terms with Warren Gatland.

His understated but shrewd style of management has silenced all the armchair discontents in Wales and, after the victory over England, the nation is buzzing with talk of Friday night's match against France. Confidence is sky high and the general consensus is that the cautious French are set up in a way which suits the reigning Six Nations champions.

The lineout had been an Achilles' heel for Wales but Alun Wyn Jones presence has changed that. His wonderful tackling matches his intelligence as he cheerfully make his big hits.

Meanwhile, Marc Lièvremont has spent the week complaining vociferously that his side have been seriously disadvantaged by last weekend's programme of French championship games. Lièvremont has ranted about playing matches at night, saying it is a bad idea because energy levels are down and stress levels up. This plays into Welsh hands and sounds like excuses being prepared for defeat. Latest Betfair prices show: France [2.42] Wales [1.78] Draw [30.0].

To make matters worse for the French, record try scorer Shane Williams has been passed fit to play and I fully expect him to score his 46th try. He is [8.4] to be First Try Scorer. Michael Phillips is [16.0].

Gatland has shown admirable patience with Gavin Henson while the public have shaken their head and sighed. However, his class returns to the squad and he will play part of the game.

Originally, Lièvremont wanted Lionel Beauxis to hoist high balls under the lights and kick France to victory but injury has robbed him of his top point scorer and probably their only chance.

His replacement is centre Benoît Baby and, with Morgan Parra coming in for Sebastien Tillous-Borde, this is the most inexperienced French half-back combo I can remember. With this Russian roulette mentality it will be interesting to see what their instructions are. Should the ball go airborne Lee Byrne's assured gathering will ensure the ball is transferred through hands at pace, fully exploiting any French jitters.

Lièvremont is demanding more aggression from his forwards but recalling veteran, unfit prop Sylvain Marconnet highlights their plight! Even 118-cap Fabien Pelous (35) was considered for selection, which shows how regressive this current French squad is.

The French have real problems in their domestic game at the moment. Huge salary increases are squeezing the smaller clubs and homegrown talent is failing to develop. With 220 overseas players in the top league and more coming in key positions things look bleak.

If ever a match was going to have three tries or more scored in it then this is it. I expect Wales to play better here than in last year's fixture at the Millenium Cardiff. They have won on three of their five previous visits to the Stade de France so there is no fear factor. I sense trepidation among the French ranks and expect the crowd to be silenced.

This fixture comes at the perfect time for Wales. For those demanding bigger odds I advise a win under 12.5pts at [2.86] with Betfair. Already the supporters are envisaging the winner-takes-all match against the Irish in Cardiff on 21 March 2009.