Six Nations Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle can't get enthusiastic about backing England at [1.17] so it comes down to a question of winning margins.

Some may consider the Martin Johnson era to be firmly in fifth gear following Sunday's comprehensive dismantling of France. It was a major step in the right direction, but the cynics would point to a host of penalties and that everything seemed to go right for England after Mark Cueto crossed the whitewash in the second minute.

The reason that everything fell into place for England was because it was the first time they played simple rugby. The adhered to what they had been taught on the training pitch, and when they turned over ball, they attacked where France appeared weakest, and where they were strongest.

And it is at the breakdown, where Tom Croft (pictured) showed himself in the best possible light last week, where England should dominate and go on to beat Scotland. England can be backed in the match betting market at [1.17].

If you look at the number of turnovers that have occurred in each match during this Six Nations there have been two standout performances, both of which occurred last week. England's back row put in a monumental performance, and their heroics helped to generate 13 turnovers against Les Bleus. Ireland are next on the list, and they managed to pilfer the ball off the Scots seven times at Murrayfield. If both England's and Scotland's back rows are in a similar vein of form at Twickenham this weekend, there can be only one winner.

But it is not only in the loose exchanges that Scotland are lacking. Frank Hadden's men have lost a fifth of their line-outs during this campaign and the bulk of those came against Ireland and Italy - their most recent fixtures. England's line-out has been a strange beast, with skipper Steve Borthwick putting in a fitful performance in attack, but coming up with the goods in defence. England stole six line-outs against Italy and Borthwick was instrumental last week against France when nicking one on the French throw.

Having put in the hours over these past few weeks, I have unearthed one significant trend to come out of this tournament that punters should be aware of. It is something that I have been watching carefully ever since the opening weekend when Wales, Ireland and England all buried their opposition by scoring early tries in the second half.

It seems a blitz just after the interval is the tonic that wins Test matches right now. Only Italy, against Scotland and Wales, have scored the first points of the second half during this year's Six Nations and gone on to lose. In the 13 other games, it was the side who grabbed the initiative after half-time that took the spoils, and in all 15 matches, the team who scored the first try of the second half went on to win.

It just so happens that England have a fantastic record of doing this at HQ. They have scored the first points of the second half in nine of their last 11 games in Middlesex, and the two sides who bucked that trend were the Grand Slam New Zealand squad and world champions South Africa.

All in all, it is difficult to quibble with Betfair's assertion that England are 12.5 points better than Scotland. That makes the winning margin betting virtually the same market if you are backing England, and it is worth investigating whether you can get a better price there. I wouldn't say that England are an outstanding bet on the handicap, but they are likely to turn over a lot of ball, and those turnovers are likely to happen in the danger area of Scotland's 22. Despite all of the troubles that the Red Rose has gone through this season, they haven't had a problem with scoring tries and that may be the deciding factor against a try-shy Scotland. You might want to look at England's try tally for this game instead, which has been set at under/over 2.5.