Six Nations Betting / Geoffrey Riddle / 13 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Twickenham is going to shake this Sunday. Martin Johnson and Marc Lievremont have called up the big guns for what is gearing up to be a monumental confrontation, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

Both coaches have opted for the power game, and French boss Marc Lievremont has moved Sebastien Chabal from second-row to open-side flanker. The Sale caveman forms a frightening trio of back-row ball carriers, who all mix powerful running ability with movement about the park.

Thierry Dusautoir and Imanol Harinordoquy have shown that they are returning to their best form, especially the Basque No.8, who likes nothing better than beating England. Harinodoquy is instrumental in building an attacking platform for France, so much so that against Wales a fortnight ago he carried the ball almost double the amount of anyone else on the pitch.

Although all three are fine players, as a triumvirate they are too similar. They do not have an out-and-out spoiler, a role in which the dropped Fulgence Ouedraogo has performed with credit, and we all saw against Wales how good a preventative measure Joe Worsley can be when he is on song. Worsley cut down the giant Welsh No.8 Andy Powell in Cardiff, and centre Jamie Roberts did not come off much better either when Worsley appeared in his channel. If the Wasp flanker can play a similar role this weekend, then England should be able to boss the breakdown.

England's chances of dominating this facet of the game would have been increased if Johnson had stuck with James Haskell at open-side, but instead he has opted for Leicester's Tom Croft, who will provide another option in the line-out.

To be fair, Croft has been in scintillating form for Leicester, but it is difficult to work out what Johnson is trying to achieve at line-out time. Skipper Steve Borthwick has barely called a throw to himself all tournament, so why Nick Kennedy has been replaced by Simon Shaw is a complete mystery. Surely it would have been better to bring on Shaw in place of Borthwick and keep Haskell? That way England would still have two line-out options and a guaranteed ball-winner in the loose.

The power game is going to extend to the centres, too, and the collision between Mike Tindall and Stade Francais' Mathieu Bastareaud is going to be pretty ugly. Watching Yannick Jauzion plough into Riki Flutey will also be interesting.

Although both sides have decent pace out wide, it is questionable how often we are going to see the ball reach those pacemen. Historically, this has been a very low-scoring fixture and the last 15 games between these two average just 37.4 points. Only five of those 15 games had total points make-ups over 40, and the total points average is artificially heightened anyway because of England's 48-19 win over Les Bleus in 2001. This could easily turn in to a war of attrition and Betfair's total points market at over/under 38.5 points is interesting.

As to who is actually going to win this game, I am firmly with England here. A hiatus in the Six Nations allows us time to assess carefully what has happened before. Looking at England's form objectively, regardless of what we merit to be a good performance on the pitch, you can only be impressed.

England have played the two tournament favourites away from home and lost by a combined total of nine points. Johnson's men have conceded just three tries so far, and on all three occasions they have had someone in the bin. Johnson has tried to rectify this by taking the squad through its paces under the eagle eye of Wayne Barnes, one of the Premiership's most trigger-happy referees. England have not had problems scoring tries either, and if they maintain some sort of discipline and structure on Sunday, I think they will win this with something to spare.