Martin Corry: Ireland will grind out title while England finish smiling
Six Nations Betting
/ MartinCorry / 18 March 2009 / Leave a comment
The final round of matches provide an enthralling conclusion to the 2009 RBS Six Nations, writes former-England captain Martin Corry.
Ireland kept themselves on course for their first Grand Slam since 1948 with a hard-worked victory over a Scottish side who offered little. After attacking with flair early on in the campaign, Ireland have reverted to type and when the pressure is on they are more than happy to grind out a victory.
Has Warren Gatland's desire to develop a squad of players cost him the championship? You might have thought so on Saturday when, despite going into their match against Italy knowing that they can only win the championship on points difference, a much-changed Wales side struggled to find their rhythm and were forced into uncharacteristic mistakes by an aggressive Italian team. They were indebted to a late Tom Shanklin try to guarantee victory but the winning margin means they have to beat Ireland by 13 points on Saturday if they are to retain the Six Nations crown.
So, can Ireland handle the pressure of having to go to the Millennium Stadium to win and how will Wales go about scoring big against the most miserly defence in the competition?
The form suggests that Ireland will look to slug this one out whilst Wales will have to show inventive flair to break down the visitor's line. Wales need Andy Powell at No. 8 to rediscover his early tournament form and Paul O'Connell must to be at his inspirational best to calm the Irish tension.
My prediction is for Wales to win the game at [1.85], but for Ireland to claim their first title since 1985 at [1.22]
* * *
Sixty-nine seconds into last Sunday's game, England were ahead for the first time in this year, and how they revelled in it. The first half was a joy to watch with forwards delivering quick ball to allow the team to play on the front foot, the pre-planned moves were well-executed, the final passes nailed - and all this with 15 men on the field. Easy.
The French were shell-shocked and couldn't muster anything until England got complacent in the second half: penalties crept in, too much ball was kicked away and France started to find gaps in the previously impenetrable defensive line. But the first 50 minutes were what England fans have been waiting for and a similar performance this weekend in the Calcutta Cup will silence Martin Johnson's critics.
However, Scotland will be coming to Twickenham at their most dangerous - when everyone expects them to lose. They have been trying to play a more expansive game and had a few key passes gone to hand against Ireland, they would have posed a serious threat. England need to show that their performance against France was no fluke and if they can improve on that and put Scotland to the sword for the full 80 minutes then the fans will start to see how much the team have improved under Johnson.
England's confidence will propel them to Calcutta Cup glory and that's why I'm backing them all the way at [1.16] to finish the tournament wearing smiles which looked inconceivable two weeks ago.
* * *
This week's warm up act has Italy hosting a stunned France. France have either been brilliant or woeful and with nothing to play for there is an outside chance that the Italians could deliver the ideal present to the tournament's stand out performer, Sergio Parisse. However, the French will be hurting from last week and their powerful backline should be way too much for the Azzurri men.
I'm backing France at [1.13], but with the uncertainty of which French side will turn up this bet comes with a health warning.
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