Six Nations Betting / Alsy / 22 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Morgan in the driving seat - Allsy previews Italy's vist to the Millenium Stadium and tells us why it may yet be Scotland finishing bottom of the pile

Italy have already lost their two opening games in this year's RBS Six Nations but still they're a team that no other wants to face. After roughing up the Irish in their opening game of the tournament they gave England a real scare. Ashton's team came within a few points of registering a third consecutive Test defeat before securing a 23-19 victory in Rome. Inevitably Italy head to the Millennium Stadium as underdogs but that won't bother them one bit.

A few weeks ago, unmoved by various reports of a revival, I predicted that the Scots were just as likely to win the 'wooden spoon' as Italy. The good news for the Azzurri is that their two defeats suggest a narrowing of the gap to the top Northern Hemisphere teams while Scotland are still trying to get out of the blocks.

Italy are predictable and passionate but they do run hard and keep ball well. Too many of Azzurri tackle phases take place on the ground but if they improve their mauling, and learn to offload in the tackle, they will be even harder to beat. When their game becomes more flexible Italy will spend more time playing rugby closer to the opposition try line and finsh off opponents.

You can back Scotland to finish bottom of the Six Nations table at [2.4] but if you fancy Italy to snatch the wooden spoon you can back them at [1.73]. I'm shocked that Scotland are not favourites for the spoon no one wants to lick and would back them at those generous odds of [2.4] before an Irish mauling this Saturday further reduces the odds. Optimists in the Scotland camp should look to a home fixture against the 'old enemy' on March 8th for their best chance of a first win.

If Scotland do register their first win it's likely to be a result of passion over precision. Frank Hadden's side have struggled to find any real form so they've tried to kick themselves into position from the halfback position. Fly-half Dan Parks has been standing very deep of late which prevents the outside-backs from running on to the ball easily. They create too few attacking options and until they can get Mike Blair and Chris Patterson more involved in the game, Scotland remain my pick for the wooden spoon. Brute force rarely wins international rugby games.

Italy have many admirable qualities but I can't see them defeating a revitalised Wales team. Wales are at [1.16] to win, Italy can be backed at a distant [7.4] while the draw is [55].

Warren Gatland is not the first coach to lead this band of talented Welshmen but he seems to be the first to instil some genuine discipline to their play. No longer so error-prone, Wales have a solid platform upon which individual talent can blossom. As seen in the second forty minutes against England, Wales have a newfound focus and structure that delivers results. The spacing of the Wales backs is fantastic and this kind of discipline will always create space for the likes of Williams and Hook.

France have also produced some wonderful attacking rugby and can be backed at [1.74] to win the tournament. Yes, they are worthy favourites but Wales should be backed at a tempting [4.1], especially when you consider that France play in Cardiff this year. France are scintillating in attack but certainly not unbeatable and if Wales can expose the weakness of their scrum, and pressurise inexperienced players, a win is not beyond Wales.

Firstly Wales must beat the 'Gladiators of Rome' who defeated them in last year's competition in Italy. Moreover, the last time Italy played in Cardiff they left with a draw so Wales are not likely to be complacent and this year their, 'one game at a time' mantra may take them all the way to top spot come March 15th.

Tags: Chris Patterson, Millenium Stadium, rugby betting, Six Nations rugby