Six Nations Betting / Eoin Ryan / 22 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Betfair's rugby union man from the Emerald Isle Eoin Ryan tells us why Croke Park is no Landsdowne Road and why an Ireland landslide is out of the question

Ireland have played a handful of games in Croke Park so far but the jury is still out on whether playing in an 80,000 capacity state of the art all-seated stadium is actually a help or a hindrance to the side. For the historic clash with England last year, it was most certainly of huge benefit but against Italy in this season's opening fixture, some punters commented on the morgue-like atmosphere in the stadium and certainly that has been my experience of attending some high-profile Soccer matches there in recent months.

Lansdowne Road wasn't pretty to look at but in terms of her ability to create an atmosphere she was certainly on a par with Croke Park. But, ultimately, the crowd will respond to what they see in front of them and tomorrow I think it could be a tough afternoon for Ireland and her supporters. That is not to say I think that Ireland will lose; I don't - but I do think there is some value in getting against them from the start tomorrow. I was surprised to see the Match Odds open as low as [1.2] and my opinion of that being too short has not changed this week, in fact, if anything, it has hardened.

It may not be obvious to punters outside Ireland but there is still a major air of discontent brewing here over our very sub-standard World Cup showing. Without raking over the dying embers of Rugby World Cup, suffice to say that Eddie O'Sullivan is under serious pressure to deliver performances at least on a par with last year's Six Nations. His own position is likely to come into sharp focus again this weekend should Ireland fail to produce a good performance and a comfortable win on Saturday. With his new 4-year contract signed pre-RWC though, Eddie will certainly not fall on his sword, regardless of how we get on against the Scots; and who could blame him?

There are two major changes to the Irish side for tomorrow's game. Munster second-row Mick O'Driscoll comes in for Mal O'Kelly - who, despite his good Leinster form this season, did have a poor day at the office against the French - and Ulster's Tommy Bowe gets rewarded for his excellent recent form, whilst Geordan Murphy is yet again dropped by a coach who looks like he has finally lost any remaining faith in the mercurial Leicester man. Should Brian O'Driscoll and Girvan Dempsey fail late fitness tests Murphy, Luke Fitzgerald and Shane Horgan will come into the reckoning for a call up to the starting XV.

Scotland, for their part, are still looking for their first win in the tournament. They were comprehensively beaten by a decent French side in Murrayfield before going down to Wales in a pretty poor encounter in Cardiff. They have a tough and very physical pack who will give Ireland plenty to think about in the line-outs and in the loose but it is at No.10 where this game could well be won or lost. The Scots have recalled Chris Paterson and that is a big boost for them in my view. His tactical kicking is excellent and he will get their backs running in a way that Dan Parks was unable to. Of course, he is also a superb place kicker and can be expected to take a shot at anything within kickable range. Much will depend on the quality of ball he is allowed to get but I personally think that the Scots will be a match for Ireland up front.

For my part, as you can probably guess, I'll be fielding against Ireland on the Match Odds at [1.2] on Betfair and also getting with Scotland on Betfair's +11.5pt handicap line at [2.1]. With injuries to some key players and a back line that looks low on confidence, Ireland are opposable at current prices. I can see this game developing into a tactical kicking affair and with Paterson in their side directing matters, the Scots can be expected to push Ireland close.

The Stats

Last 5 meetings (all competition):

Aug 2007: Scotland 31 - Ireland 21
Mar 2007: Scotland 18- Ireland 19
Mar 2006: Ireland 15 - Scotland 9
Feb 2005: Scotland 13 - Ireland 40
Mar 2004: Ireland 37 - Scotland 16

Avg. Score (Last 5 meetings):
Ireland 26.4pts, Scotland 17.4pts,

Weather Watch, Saturday (Dublin): Mild, patchy rain and drizzle at first becoming mostly dry staying rather cloudy but some bright periods.

Kick Off: 5PM

Tags: Brian O'Driscoll, Chris Patterson, rugby betting, Six Nations betting