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Grand Slam Betting: Wales have date with an improbable destiny

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Paul Moon weighs up whether the Welsh can knock over France to complete a Six Nations clean sweep...

Victory over France at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium would give Wales the Grand Slam, but the visitors would seize the Championship themselves by beating Wales by 20 points or more. Wales haven't beaten France in Cardiff in a Five or Six Nations match since 1996 so the RBS Six Nations is perfectly set up for a wonderful conclusion. With a massive crowd it promises to be a great spectacle at the Millennium Stadium at 17.00 on Saturday!

Last year's champions have experimented with a number of new players and focused on running the ball since the start of the tournament. They were far from perfect in a 25-13 win over Italy in Paris on Sunday with lots of errors in the line-out and scrum. France coach Marc Lievremont has recalled several experienced players including scrum half Jean-Baptiste Ellisaide and free scoring wing Vincent Clerc for the title showdown. He continues to chop and change his team haphazardly and Les Bleus captain Lionel Nallet admits it will be tough to get the result needed.

The lame surrender of France to England in Paris on 23 February 2008 has paralysed them and the hangover was evident last Sunday against Italy. Lievremont admitted to being relieved after the match - hardly oozing with confidence then? I don't believe that they will able to put all that behind them, let alone find a 20-point win!

They have to chase the game so I expect the French to be ambitious. They will dazzle early, off-loading and playing from their own 22 but this Welsh team are a different proposition now to the one that faced England, they will pick France off like 'grapes in a vineyard'. Wales will win the Grand Slam - that's official!

Wales have proved themselves capable of winning games under intense pressure under new coach Warren Gatland. They have the momentum, the heart, and have now adopted a smart tough mentality with the errors being reduced every game they play. Evidence of that is how they retained possession for long periods while being reduced to 14-men against the Irish. I was intrigued by the fact that Wales completed 147 passes to Ireland's 75 in Dublin. Quite remarkable! The Welsh are clearly improving at a rate of knots.

Gatland has pulled off the impressive feat of making huge improvements to the defensive part of his side's game without sacrificing the flair that defines Welsh rugby. The only two tries scored against them was a lineout throw error by Rees and a cross-field kick. He has since banished complacency and made them a proficient unit.

Mike Phillips will retain his place despite his crass stupidity in kneeing Ireland prop Marcus Horan in the back. The scrum-half went on to give a self-motivated performance in Ireland and hopefully he will have learned a lesson. He was man-of-the-match in defeat to France in Cardiff two years ago. Martyn Williams also keeps his place.

Despite Matthew Rees' improved throw-ins at the lineout he has made way for flu victim Huw Bennett. Gatland called the decision marginal but all and sundry remembers that awful delivery into the lineout.

Hook gets the number 10 shirt back from Jones. His attacking qualities whilst holding the ball against the reshuffled French will be the key to the game. There will be spaces. I suspect 'man of the series' Shane Williams will relish his inclusion and will be seeking to add to his 40 tries in just 55 games. He no longer gets turned over in the tackle and is still improving - he could be on the verge of true greatness.

The enigmatic Henson is aiming to make it 10 out 10 wins when he has started in a Six Nations game for Wales. His defensive qualities will be needed in this tense thriller and this should confirm his resurrection. He was brilliant against Ireland.

Once again the Welsh bench is strong and Jones, with his vast experience, will be available should Wales wish to close the game down in the last quarter.

Gatland seemed quietly confident during the week and for the first time mentioned winning the game and creating history! Current prices show Wales at [1.68] and France [2.56] with the draw at [38.0]. Whist envisaging a Wales victory those odds look a little cramped and one would have to confess that the value is France. Wales with a 12.5pt handicap are [2.76] and that looks good enough to me! Interestingly James Hook to score a try is [3.85]. Tries will and must be scored in this game so there could be lots of punting opportunities.