Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 13 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Despite the array of attacking talent on both sides, Geoffrey Riddle believes that Saturday's Cook Cup contest at Twickenham could turn into a real arm-wrestle.

Punters should sit down quietly for a moment and think about what they consider to be the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Wallabies over the last three years or so before having a bet on this game.

Take yourself to your favourite chair, and have a real think. What do you come up with? Flanker George Smith. One of the best open-sides in the world, one who can slow ball down at will and create turnovers from virtually nothing. Next up is an exciting and capable backline, which has the nuts and bolts to trouble the best teams. Finally, or perhaps firstly, in most people's minds, is their weak and pathetic front row.

In choosing Al Baxter to uphold the Wallaby scrum, coach Robbie Deans has consigned one of the bravest, but most ill-equipped props in world rugby to an afternoon of pure torture. The last time England's Andrew Sheridan met Baxter, the Aussie had just come on in the World Cup quarter-final in place of the departing Guy Shephardson. Baxter fared pretty poorly against Sheridan's significant might. The time before that, Baxter was pummelled into the Twickenham turf by Sheridan, so much so that the poor guy was sent to the sin-bin for collapsing the scrum one too many times.

Australia will be comprehensively out-pointed in the scrum on Saturday. They will attempt to slow England's ball down through a mixture of George Smith's dark arts and a shepherding defence. They will hope that their illustrious back-line can score enough points to keep them in the game, through counter-attacking with turnover ball.

So in summary, have you thought of any new dimension that the Wallabies will bring to Twickenham on Saturday that previous England teams haven't had to contend with? Because if you can't, then England are likely to repeat the five wins they have accumulated in the last six encounters in the northern hemisphere between these two. England currently trade at [1.93] in the match betting market, with Australia [2.16].

England's ball was hilariously slow against the Pacific Islanders last weekend, and the usually sprightly flanker Tom Rees was virtually nowhere to be seen. Rees simply cannot afford to go AWOL against Smith on Saturday, otherwise England's scrum dominance will be for naught.

England coach Martin Johnson has revealed his hand slightly by choosing Wasps locks Tom Palmer and Simon Shaw, who is on the bench. Nick Kennedy put in a solid show last weekend against the Pacific Islanders, but it would be fair to say that he lacked real grunt, which is a pre-requisite for duffing up Australia.

Johnson has quite clearly named a pack that he believes can also monster Australia in the loose. Deans has included two hulking back-row forwards on his bench in a bid to counteract that threat.

What may be worth a look therefore, is the total points market. There is a chance that this is going to develop into a real arm-wrestle, despite both three-quarter lines boasting an impressive array of attacking talent. The last six games in the northern hemisphere played between these teams average a total points make-up of just 40.6 and it must be remembered that England only conceded a charge-down try against the Pacific Islanders last week. It's not much to go on, sure, but it showed defensive intent.

This Cook Cup fixture is always fiercely contested, and in the sample of games just mentioned, neither team has managed to beat the other by more than ten points. England to win by less than 12.5 points on Betfair is currently [2.3], a price which looks sure to drift.

In-running traders get no help with regards to who might build up an early lead either. Although England have opened the scoring with a penalty in nine of their last 11 games at HQ, the Aussies are no slouches when getting on the score-sheet first, having done so in their last five away games, four of which have been under the coaching of Deans.

If Australia are to win this game, Deans needs to come up with a sure-fire way of destabilising England's scrum. It certainly isn't beyond them, because they did it against South Africa and New Zealand at times during the Tri-Nations. This is a different test, however. Australia have never been the best of tourists to the northern hemisphere, and at just under evens, Johnson's side looks the call for me.