Magners League / Editor / 25 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Mark Doyle has a look at where the value might lie in the Magners League this weekend.

Understandably, most rugby fans' attention will this weekend be focused on Leinster's mouth-watering showdown with Munster at the RDS, but there is some value to be found in the other games down for decision. Of the four other matches, two look like home bankers: Cardiff's clash with Connacht at the Arms Park, and Ospreys' meeting with Ulster in Swansea.

Connacht will travel to Cardiff high in confidence after picking up their first win of the season last weekend. However, it is very difficult to see them even getting a bonus point out of the Blues. Cardiff have been by no means impressive this year - their style of rugby could hardly be described as exhilarating - but they should have far too much power for Connacht, who were routed by The Scarlets on their last visit to Wales a fortnight ago. Michael Bradley's men are unlikely to suffer a similar mauling this time around - as the Blues look a little predictable and one-dimensional in attack - but backing Cardiff to win by more than 12.5 points looks a sound bet.

Ospreys should enjoy a similar margin of victory over Ulster in Swansea. The hosts have yet to fire for a full 80 minutes this season but they have shown in flashes just how devastating they can be with ball in hand. And while Sean Holley's troops may have been beaten in Leinster last weekend, they were somewhat unfortunate - given that they had dominated possession for most of the game. In addition, he return of star centre Gavin Henson will only add another weapon to an already bountiful arsenal of attacking talent behind the scrum. Ulster will make a fight of this - they have not been found wanting in terms of spirit or heart in any of their three games so far this season.

However, they do lack quality and confidence - and Liberty Stadium is no place for a struggling team to go. Again, one cannot look past the home side by over 12.5 points.

Happily, the other two games of the weekend are far tougher to call. The Dragons welcome Edinburgh to Rodney Parade for a match between two sides who registered their first wins of the season last weekend. And impressive wins they were, too, with Dragons upsetting Ulster at Ravenhill, and Edinburgh outplaying high-flying Scarlets at Murrayfield. The Scots are the superior team, of that there can be little doubt, and they are justifiably slight favourites. However, I just have a sneaking suspicion that the Dragons are going to turn this into a scrap - just as they did last season - and will just edge it. Certainly, for a home side priced at [1.7] against inconsistent opposition, particularly on the road, the Welsh are too good to turn down.

The same could be said of The Scarlets. After last weekend's disappointment in Edinburgh, they will not be relishing their trip to Glasgow. The Warriors do not have quite the same strength in depth as their Scottish rivals, but they are an extremely difficult side to beat at home. Indeed, they came desperately close to beating the Ospreys a fortnight ago. However, the Scarlets have looked like a much-improved side this season and, if they can produce anything near their best form, should just nick this one. At [1.75], they represent good value.

Recommended Bets:

Dragons & Scarlets to Win.
Ospreys by over 12.5 points.
Cardiff by over 12.5 points.