Magners League / Stephen Kennelly / 17 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Stephen Kennelly believes that Leinster will come back down to earth with a bump in the Scottish capital. Meanwhile, down the road in Glasgow, where are the points coming from for Ulster?

Edinburgh v Leinster

Michael Cheika said after last week's game that his players were 'broken' after the win against Quins. His team selection for Friday's match against Edinburgh clearly shows that some players are broken and can't even make the the flight over. Leinster's strength in depth has improved in recent seasons but that is more due to players being pushed out of their position and falling down the pecking order than a new breed of fringe players. This is possibly the worst team they could field. Although O'Brien and McFadden are good players, the front row and second row are seriously short of game time and most likely ability. Overall, Leinster are lacking sharpness.

Edinburgh, who didn't play great two weeks but got a good result, 16-3 against Cardiff (who went on to beat Toulouse), name another strong squad here. Leinster's inexperienced front row will suffer (and I'd be surprised if they last). They don't have Rocky who has carried them over the line for numerous games this season and Isa Nacewa at 10 is worrying.

Edinburgh have strong kickers (they are scoring plenty of drop goals) and play a similar scoreboard ticking style to the England squad Robinson was involved in. Barring any terrible defensive errors, this won't be a tryfest - it will be won by kickers, of which Leinster have none. Nacewa kicked for the Blues but if he was good why hasn't he stepped in for Felipe or even taken a few long pot shots?

This game last season saw Leinster lose by three points against a weaker Edinburgh side. Edinburgh are genearlly excellent at home and Leinster players will struggle to focus and keep up the league push here.

Glasgow v Ulster

Ulster lost two weeks ago against what can only be described as a weakend Ospreys team. Before that they lost by around 25points against Leinster who can't score tries. Matt Williams has been saying all the right things but it looks like the spark that they produced around the festive season may have fizzled now that they don't have anything to play for.

Glasgow won away against Llanelli with a very respectable try tally. They should continue against an improving but average Ulster defence. Since January, Ulster have conceded on average 23.2 points each game on the road. The Dragons don't seem to have problems scoring tries but they do concede a few.

So it should be an open enough game. With Cave and Nagusa not playing for Ulster (because of form issues) they lack real pace and, with O'Connor not a game turner at 10 yet, I can't see where the points are coming from. The Evans brothers are quality Magners League players who in good playing conditions (which it should be tomorrow night) will look to reverse the 12-0 loss to Ulster in March in terrible conditions.

Recommendation: Glasgow -6 for 2pts @ [2.0]
Over 38.5pt @[1.95] for 1pt