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The Contrarian: Why England will win the summer rugby tour to New Zealand

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New boss renews English zeal as All Black absences and laws tiz-waz point to repeat of 2003 heroics.

If you shut your eyes and imagine a tour, you'd probably visualise an exciting journey with plenty of photo stops at local landmarks and exposure to the unique charms of foreign cities. An experience that will live with you forever. The kind of thing they used to have on the Holiday programme.

A two-match jaunt to New Zealand that will be over within eight days pretty much kills this vision. But while they may not have much time for postcards, the Contrarian believes the England rugby team will return home victorious. Here's why:

England are occasionally capable of over-achieving
New Zealand are massive favourites given that England have only beaten them three times in the last twenty years, but as the previous two World Cups have shown, when England perform as a unit they can beat anyone. England's run to the 2007 World Cup Final suggests they perform much better when cast as underdogs. Their record in the last five Six Nations tournaments, where the expectation and pressure on them to perform has been intense, has certainly not helped bring the best out of them, as they haven't won any of them.

Players will be eager to impress Martin Johnson
England will be enjoying a healthy dose of 'new manager syndrome' - the boom period in the immediate aftermath of hiring a new boss. Sven proved this with both England and Manchester City while Brian Ashton led England's rugby team to two victories in his first two games in charge in 2007 before following up with only two in the next eight. While Johnson will not be touring, he has selected the team and captain and the players will be desperate to impress.

England aren't doing that terribly anyway
Brian Ashton's sacking would have you believe that England have been performing atrociously, but even in the twilight of his reign, England won seven of their last ten games. The biggest loss over that period was by nine points which shows that England have still been competitive recently.

New Zealand are missing key men
England may be without Jonny Wilkinson, Phil Vickery and Danny Cipriani, but New Zealand are missing even more players. Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver, Chris Jack, Aaron Mauger and Luke McAlister are all playing in Europe while Joe Rokocoko is out injured. Those players formed the spine of the team that went out of the World Cup two rounds earlier than England, and will not be easy to replace.

The All Blacks have to adapt
Since the World Cup, England have competed in the Six Nations while New Zealand's post-World Cup action has consisted of competing in the Super 14 tournament, where positional discipline and tight defending is less important. New Zealand only have one game, against Ireland, to try to adjust back to test rugby. England are already accustomed to playing in that manner and Martin Johnson will be able to select a team to take advantage.

New Zealand will have been further confused by the new "Experimental Law Variations" which were trialled in the Super 14. For this test series it has been decided the existing laws will be adhered to, which can only benefit England.

They have won there before
Why should England be scared of facing a dismantled New Zealand team when they defeated a full-strength All Blacks side in their own backyard five years ago? England have travelled to New Zealand twice since and lost, but that 2003 win also happens to be the last time Martin Johnson was involved in an England clash with the All Blacks.