The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will beat New Zealand in the rugby

International / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Last week the Contrarian took Wales to conquer New Zealand - pretty crazy - this week he's selected Martin Johnson's battered and bruised charges to overcome the world's best. That's just madness...

The Contrarian's brave call that Wales would pick up their first win over New Zealand in 55 years was looking good at half-time before Warren Gatland's side were beaten in the final 40, the half in which they had performed better in previous matches. However, the Contrarian is undeterred by that setback and adamant that the All Blacks will board their flights back south of the equator with the bitter taste of defeat stuck in their throats. The last stop on their European tour is Twickenham, where England were humbled by South Africa last weekend, but Martin Johnson has past experience of conquering the All Blacks and will lead England [13.5] to victory on Saturday. Here's why:

England are used to bouncing back

On the last three occasions when England lost successive games, as they have this month against Australia and South Africa, they have bounced back to win the third. Last week's loss was England's first 36-point loss since their loss to the Springboks at the World Cup and on that occasion they recovered to win their next four matches and make a shock run through to the final.

They always conquer one of the big three in autumn

Every year this decade England have beaten one of the three southern hemisphere giants - Australia, New Zealand and South Africa - in either autumn internationals or at the World Cup. Last year Australia were conquered in October at the World Cup, in 2006 England triumphed over South Africa in November while the year before it was Australia. In 2004, England convincingly defeated South Africa 32-16, in 2003 Australia were overcome in the World Cup Final and the year before England completed a treble over New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. Going even further back they beat both Australia and South Africa in autumn 2000 and 2001.

England rarely lose a trio at Twickenham

Only once in the last 35 years have England suffered three successive defeats at Twickenham.
That failure occurred two years ago when, after being beaten at home in the Six Nations by Ireland in March, England were then beaten eight months later in autumn internationals against New Zealand and Australia. On that occasion England avoided losing three successive home games in the space of a month by recovering from defeats in the first two autumn internationals to overcome South Africa 23-21 in the third.

Martin Johnson has a good record against the All Blacks

Unlike the three teams New Zealand have conquered so far on their tour, England have actually recorded recent victories over the All Blacks. Wales had last beaten New Zealand in 1953 and Scotland in 1983, while Ireland are still waiting to record their first victory over them, but England have twice beaten them this decade. France beat the All Blacks on neutral territory at last year's World Cup but England were the last northern hemisphere team to record a home victory over New Zealand six years ago. Manager Martin Johnson was victorious in his last two meetings with the All Blacks as a player.

England perform better when expectations are lower

England's success at the World Cup when nobody was expecting much progress, compared to their recent failures at the Six Nations, which they haven't won since 2003 despite greater expectation, shows that they perform better as underdogs. All Blacks lock Brad Thorn has identified this as a worry by saying: "South Africa didn't do us any favours by beating England by so much. They will really be licking their wounds and really be giving everything they have got this weekend. It's going to be a tough one."