The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will beat New Zealand

International / The Betfair Contrarian / 18 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Contrarian believes England will rally to save their boss

Only the truly bold should follow the Contrarian this week as he backs England to beat the All Blacks at [8.4] on Betfair.

Odds of [8.2] on an England win is a tasty price considering the match is at Twickenham, but England have lost seven straight clashes with New Zealand, who havent lost at the home of a northern hemisphere nation in over seven years. Now you know the size of the task facing Martin Johnson's men, read on to find out why they will become heroes:

The North will rise again

Last year's Autumn Internationals were pretty humiliating for the European nations as they lost 10 of their 11 matches against New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, with only a 21-18 final day victory for Wales over Australia salvaging the slightest semblance of pride. This year though, France have already cut world champions South Africa down to size while Ireland held Australia on Sunday. Now it's England's turn to do their bit, with New Zealand the last of the Tri Nations waiting to be put in their place.

Expectations couldn't be lower

Following their 18-9 loss to Australia, England's 16-9 victory over Argentina, in which only a try 11 minutes from the end spared them from humiliation, is considered a new low. The crowd were booing and only showed any enthusiasm when their paper aeroplanes landed on the turf. Why is that a good thing? Because England's best performances always come when their backs are against the wall. The best example is their journey to the World Cup final two years ago when they progressed two rounds further than the All Blacks. Prior to those unlikely heroics they were destroyed 0-36 by South Africa.

New Zealand are vulnerable

The All Blacks may have won the first two internationals of their tour but don't read too much into that: one was against whipping boys Italy - their 12th straight loss - and the other was against Wales, who they have beaten 21 times in succession. They've underperformed badly this year, with South Africa ending their four-year domination of the Tri Nations in emphatic fashion. Since January, they have tasted defeat on four occasions, having lost just six times in the previous 53 months. New Zealand had lost just 10 times in six years and never more than twice in a year during that period.

England are formidable at home again

Martin Johnson's men were humiliated at Twickenham in last year's home Internationals, losing successive matches to Australia, South Africa and New Zealand but encouragingly, they bounced back from the setback fairly well to once again make it a difficult place to visit. Theyve won five of their six at home this year, with the most impressive wins being the comfortable Six Nations trio against Italy, France and Scotland. It was only the second time in six years that they enjoyed a 100 per cent home record in the tournament and the consequence was their best finish since winning it in 2003.

Johnson's job is on the line

Andy Robinson's spell as England boss ended in November 2006 after disappointing results in the Autumn Internationals and there is speculation that Johnson's tenure as head coach could end if they are embarrassed against the All Blacks. That could prove a positive as players often raise their game when their boss is potentially under threat - think of South Africas improvement at the World Cup under Jake White after a dismal end to the 2007 Tri Nations, or to borrow an example from another sport, Hull's hard-fought victory over Stoke recently to arguably save Phil Brown's job. Johnson may have lost his first clash with the All Blacks as a coach but he was captain when England last beat them in 2003, and won his last two meetings with them as a player.