Rugby Union Internationals Betting: Do slow starters Wales really deserve to be 3.2?

International / Geoffrey Riddle / 06 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Riddle is surprised by Wales' price to beat South Africa, wonders what influence the referee will have on the outcome at Murrayfield and predicts a classic in Marseille.

Wales v South Africa

Before I could unearth a handicap line for this match, I assumed that South Africa would be favourites at around the 8-9 mark. I thought this was a fair tissue handicap, given that the traditional bookmakers had the Springboks at around three-point favourites in their only fixture on Australian soil in the Tri-Nations. Sure, Peter de Villiers men lost 16-9 in Perth, but that was mainly due to fatigue, having played an intense double-header against New Zealand beforehand.

It follows also that whenever Australia, New Zealand or South Africa come to Cardiff, the handicap is generally at that sort of level, if not in double figures, the only exception being in the autumn of 2006 when the Dragons were actually favourites in some places against the Aussies.

And yet, South Africa can be backed on Betfair at [1.47], which equates to a handicap of something like five to six points. Now we all know that this Springbok side is not hewn from the same rock as Jake White's world champions, but click on the link below and take a look at the line-ups when South Africa thrashed Wales 34-12 last year in the Millennium Stadium.

South Africa played Andre Pretorious at fly-half! And there was no Victor Matfield, nor Fourie du Preez, who must be the world's best scrum-half. A glance at the home side's team-sheet tells you that this game was taken very seriously, too.

Now I appreciate that South Africa have an untidy-looking team, with John Smit playing hooker, and Ruan Pienaar at fly-half, and that Warren Gatland has named a decent XV, despite Gavin Henson's lack of fitness. But do Wales really deserve to be [3.2]?

The Welsh have a bad habit of starting slowly, before producing the coup de grace in the second-half. They scored more points in the second half than in the first in every Six Nations game this year. Perhaps Welsh supporters should consider the South Africa-Wales double result instead at around [7.2].

Scotland v New Zealand

The last time these two sides clashed was in the World Cup when Scotland threw the game by naming a seriously under-strength team, which lost 40-0. This time it is the turn of All Black coach Graham Henry to name what can only be described as his weakest run-on XV for Saturday's late kick-off at Murrayfield.

Dan Carter and Richie McCaw warm the bench, and the three-quarter line is seriously untested. Rokocoko, who admittedly has scored 43 tries in just 48 international appearances, hasn't played a competitive Test match since the painful 20-18 defeat to France at the World Cup. The rest have a lot to prove.

Much water has passed under the bridge since that Cardiff contest, but for referee Wayne Barnes, who officiated that night, and was blamed heavily by several All Blacks for the upset, it must be difficult to take charge of this game at Murrayfield.

That quarter-final was a massive shock to some - New Zealand were 13-point favourites - and Barnes almost presided over the game of the tournament when Georgia pushed Ireland all the way, eventually losing 14-10. Can he contribute to something as extraordinary once more?

Scotland are [14.5] on Betfair with New Zealand trading at [1.07]. The early handicap lines indicate that Frank Hadden's men will receive something in the region of 18 points. It's tempting to side with the home team on the handicap. But do you really want to be hanging on for dear life, just before a night out on the town, hoping they'll manage to keep within it? I think this is one for the in-running lay-to-back traders, who like to get stuck in to the [1.07].

France v Argentina

This has all the makings of another classic. The Pumas have an exceptional record against the French, winning six of the last seven. They have generally been a big price, too, getting as big as a 13-point start in the World Cup Pool game last year.

Nothing like that will be available this time, as the early trade on Betfair sees Santiago Phelan's visitors at around [2.54], but that price is sure to drift.

French coach Marc Lievremont seems to have abandoned his experimental line-ups of the Six Nations and has plumped for a very strong side, boasting nine players from Toulouse, who top the French league. Heineken Cup watchers will recognise Maxime Medard at full-back, while a recall for Benoit Baby is long overdue.

This fixture is clouded somewhat by the presence of Fabien Galthie, the former France scrum-half and coach of Stade Francais, who recently hooked up with the Pumas, while former Argentinian fly-half Gonzalo Quesada has been training Les Bleus' place-kickers.

Argentina suffered a miserable time of it during the summer tours when losing to Scotland and Italy at home, before getting thrashed by South Africa 63-9. Those results can be taken with a pinch of salt as Argentina were without a lot of their star names, but even taking that into calculation, are France now a decent price at [1.4] to win in Marseille, their traditional stronghold?