International / Geoffrey Riddle / 13 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle plunders the www.bettorlogic.com database for his analysis of the weekend's big international fixtures.

A quick glance at the match stats for South Africa's win against Wales in Cardiff last week illustrates that although they lost 20-15, Wales could easily have won.

Warren Gatland's side had the most possession, they beat over double the amount of defenders, missed fewer tackles by far, and had 58% of the territory. There were, however, three deficiencies in their stats that tell pretty much the whole story. Firstly, Wales made almost twice the amount of meters in the game, but conceded 17 turnovers to South Africa's ten. They lost twice as many line-outs, too. The fact that South Africa put in almost double the amount of tackles than their hosts suggests that they were happy to let the Welsh come at them, tackle them to standstill, and then turnover the ball and run it back. It is a simple gameplan, and one which suggests that Wales could be a bet on the handicap against Canada on Friday, and South Africa might not be against Scotland on Saturday.

The Springboks cannot afford to play a similar way against a Scottish team that defends through habit. If they sit back and absorb pressure against Frank Hadden's men, punters might as well sell points for their maximum, as the scoreline is likely to make up very low.

South Africa are going to have to go out and play. We all know that backing Scotland on the handicap at Murrayfield is no fun, but we also know that at home they are capable of putting in a decent performance, and they have been handicap winners there in recent years more often than they have been losers. Scotland are trading at [10.5] on Betfair at the moment and the early handicap lines suggest a 15-17 point start for Frank Hadden's men.

And there is every reason to suggest that Scotland should start this game well. They have scored the first points of the match in six of their last seven games at home, while the Springboks have struggled early on recently under coach Peter de Villiers, scoring the first points just four times in 11 games. Sure, they touched down first against Wales last week, but the Welsh machine rarely gets going until the second half.

Wales will continue to play their fast and loose game against the Canadians, who put in a shocker against Ireland last weekend. The handicap with the regular bookies was around 33 in the Canadians favour, although early lines suggest that it could be as high as 43 on Friday. The pitch in Limerick was in a complete state though, and although I have absolutely no proof of this whatsoever, I would like to say that those conditions clearly favoured the Irish. Rugby trader Brian Cusack suggested last week that he would have installed Ireland as 40-point favourites had the weather been better.

Wales have a tremendous recent record of putting dire teams to the sword. They thrashed Japan 72-18 at the World Cup last year and beat Canada 61-26 in 2006. Japan were the source of another steam-rollering in 2004 when the Cherry Blossoms were plucked 98-0, while in the same year Romania were beaten 66-7. It doesn't look good for Canada.

Ireland have a good record against the All Blacks over the last few years, losing their last three games against Graham Henry's side by 10, 10 and 11 points. They have been impressive, too, since Declan Kidney, the former Munster coach, took charge of the national side in the summer.

Punters may also look at the composite parts of the All Blacks starting line-up and consider it not really up to much. Sure on paper it looks very strong, boasting 347 caps in the pack and 271 in the backline. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are decent players in their own right, and together they should provide the perfect bludgeon and rapier combination in the centres, but the jury remains out about them as a pair.

The back three of Sitiveni Sivivatu, Joe Rokocoko and Mils Muliaina at its best is lethal, but all of them are ring-rusty. Sivivatu has scored three tries in 10 Tests this year, which is a pitiful return when compared to his strike-rate of a try a game in previous years. Muliaina has been off for several weeks tending to his new-born child, while Joe Rokocoko is still feeling his way back from injury.

I like the chances of Ireland, and the arguments for them are impressive. The only problem I have though, is the price and at [4.7], which equates to a handicap of around 10 points, I can't touch them with a barge pole.

This may not be a vintage New Zealand side, but the 2005 Grand Slam winners apart, no touring side from the southern hemisphere is. New Zealand have a good record of thrashing Six Nations teams in November internationals, and despite Kidney's new dawn, I had this match at something like 13-14 points.