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Rugby Union Betting: Edwards fires up Wales for Boks test

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Reputations go on the line over the next month as Southern Hemisphere sides defend their shores against touring teams from the Six Nations. Geoffrey Riddle looks at the markets.

Many people think Wales and Ireland have no hope against South Africa and New Zealand respectively. They could well be right.

Of the 49 games the Tri-Nations superpowers have played against Six Nations teams over the last eight years they have lost only five. Can you remember those rare victories?

France beat South Africa in 2006 at Newlands, having drawn 30-30 with them in Durban the year before. England, who it must be remembered were the best side in the world at the time, monstered New Zealand and Australia in 2003 before going on to win the World Cup. The only other successes in the last eight years were against Harry Viljoen's Springboks, who weren't up to much. France won 32-23 in 2001 after England had scored a rare 27-22 victory in Bloemfontein.

You will notice that Wales, despite having won the Grand Slam in 2005 and this year, are absent from this illustrious group. You have to go back to 1999 for the Dragons' only ever victory over the Springboks, and even that was in Cardiff. You see what the Six Nations sides are up against.

However, Wales came within a whisker of beating Australia last year, until one of Gareth Cooper's last minute chip out of defence resulted in the Wallabies running the ball back and scoring in the corner.

That is not to say that Wales do not have a chance of justifying odds of [4.7] in Bloemfontein in the first Test. In fact you would say that on the face of it, there are numerous factors in their favour. South Africa have to contend with returning to the old laws of rugby, having played according to the International Rugby Board's ELV system in the Super 14. The match will be refereed by Englishman Dave Pearson, who officiated in Wales's 47-8 thumping of Italy in the Six Nations. The World Champions also have a new coach in Pieter de Villiers, who has named just five of the starting XV from the World Cup final, and who has failed spectacularly to select a recognised place-kicker. And in Warren Gatland, Shaun Edwards and Rob Howley, Wales have one of the best coaching triumvirates in the world.

That last fact is not to be underestimated. Consider this. In the World Cup final against England, Bryan Habana, the devastating Springbok winger, touched the ball just once. The possible reason for this? Shaun Edwards. The rugby league legend stated earlier this week that the reason Habana was marked out the game, "was because he was playing against Paul Sackey, and I coach Paul Sackey at Wasps. You have to man-mark him [Habana], and I thought Paul Sackey did a great job on him." Betfair have a market on Habana, which trades over/under 1.5 tries. The World Cup top tryscorer has 30 tries in his 36 Tests and is set to be shadowed by Mark Jones.

The question of how the Springboks will respond to a return to the old laws is massively overblown. The players have been grounded in one set of laws, and for just 13 to 14 weeks, they played in a slightly different style. There is no question in which laws their reactions are deeply set, and if you look at the two successful South African franchises, the Sharks and the Stormers, they barely adapted their game to the new laws anyway. Both relied on extremely tight defence - they had the second and third best defences after the champion Crusaders - but both were also light in the attack department as well. Also, skipper John Smit leads a band of returning European mercenaries who the ELVs have so far passed by, and who form the nucleus of the match-day squad, if not the starting line-up.

South Africa have generally been ready for their first summer Test recently, with victories in the last four years over England, Scotland, Uruguay and Ireland all in excess of Betfair's +13.5-point handicap. This could be Wales's best chance of a result in the Rainbow Nation, but with the absence of Gavin Henson, Lee Bryne, Martyn Williams, and scrum-halves Dwayne Peel and Mike Phillips all looking costly, as well as the altitude not playing into Gatland's hands, South Africa may just edge it in the handicap market.