Rugby Betting: Why this summer's tour is crucial for England

International / Ralph Ellis / 12 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Martin Johnson has selected a big squad for England's summer tour

"It would be nice to think you could have a punt on England for the 2011 World Cup at [18.0] and sit back to see a successful tour bring those odds rattling down."

Martin Johnson has announced his 44 man squad for this summer's tour of Australia and New Zealand. It could be a decisive time, says Ralph Ellis, because if the coach doesn't get it right on this trip, he probably never will.

In two years since he took over, Martin Johnson has chopped and changed England's rugby line-up in a way that would make Rafa Benitez look like a model of consistent selection. For instance, I've lost count of the number of times we've hailed the new fly-half who was going to be the next big thing.

Yet a bit like London buses, another one has just arrived. Charlie Hodgson is hardly a bright young starlet, however. He's nearing his 30th birthday and his days as a shooting star, when he won his first England cap within months of turning professional, are ancient history. But his recall to the touring party Jonno named yesterday underlines that England's manager is no nearer settling his side than he was when he first started.

And that is a worry, because while most minds are on the football World Cup this summer, there's another World Cup coming in 2011 for England's rugby team and it's beginning to look as if it's coming too quickly for the man who's hoping to go down in history for winning the Webb Ellis Trophy as both a captain and a manager.

The 44 players Johnson named yesterday might in theory be only a summer tour squad, but in reality if he doesn't find a formula that he can rely on during this trip then he probably never will. It was the tour to play, and beat, the All Blacks on their own patch which convinced his 2003 World Cup winners they had nothing to fear from facing Australia in Sydney soon after. Fast forward seven years and that epic final, with Jonny Wilkinson's immortal drop goal, is the last time England won a Test in the Southern Hemisphere. If he can't change that this summer then what hope is there for next year?

Hodgson, of course, might have been part of that 2003 glory side, had he not suffered a cruciate knee ligament injury shortly before. And his 2007 prospects were ended when the other knee got bust. A year after that his reputation was broken almost as badly when he got trampled underfoot by All Blacks centre Ma'a Nonu and was hauled off midway through a Test before being told by Rob Andrew that he couldn't defend. This season at Sale has changed that perception. Hodgson is the club's second highest tackler - thus suggesting Capello isn't the only England manager who is keen on using stats!

Johnson says it's a deliberate policy to take such a big group of players in the hope a settled side will emerge. "It will be more like an old-fashioned, old-school tour with midweek games and guys who have to muck in," is the promise. The trouble is from the outside it looks more like the choices of a man who can't make his mind up.

Even the captaincy isn't settled. Johnson says he wants to wait until after this weekend's Guinness Premiership semi-finals. That in itself makes no sense - what can he learn from two games that he doesn't know already, or if he's worried about the prime candidate getting injured he needs to wait until after the final too. Leicester's Lewis Moody, whose club are [2.16] favourites to win the title, is most likely to get the job.
All in all it would be nice to think you could have a punt on England for the 2011 World Cup at [18.0] and sit back to see a successful tour bring those odds rattling down. But instead I fear it will move the price the opposite way.

Five things you might not know about Charlie Hodgson

1. Born November 1980 in Halifax, his full name is Charles Christopher.

2. He grew up supporting Halifax's Rugby League team, and got into Union by accident when he went to watch a friend play for Old Brodleians and the opposition were short so Charlie turned out to make up the numbers

3. He was still only playing for fun when he started a sports science degree at Durham and Sale saw him playing for the University team half way through his first year. They convinced him to drop out of his studies and turn professional - within a year he made his England debut.

4. He and wife Daisy, an auctioneer, had been going out since they were at school together. Their son Henry was born in April 2008

5. He's a crossword fiend - his favourite newspaper is The Telegraph and he likes to do the cryptic one.