International / Paul Moon / 14 June 2008 / 1 Comments

New Zealand have dispatched Ireland and England, and South Africa demolished Wales, but who are the strongest Tri-Nations outfit? All three have been in a state of flux since the World Cup, so Paul Moon's conundrum may be tougher than it sounds.

The Tri Nations rugby union tournament is an annual round-robin competition between the three Southern Hemisphere rugby giants Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. It is a fabulous competition played in a significantly higher standard than our Six Nations but because of increasing player migration the mix will be somewhat different this year.

The bond between the players will still be there from a nationalistic point of view but you sense a dilution of that close camaraderie when they play with and against each other in their home country. Like cricket, bank balances are more likely to be discussed than provincial intercourse.

I have always admired New Zealand in a Rugby Union context in that they produce a conveyor belt of fine rugby players consistently with no apparent waste years. Remarkable achievements from a population of four million - but are they in crisis now?

Since 1996 New Zealand have been the Tri Nations Series Champions eight times whilst Australia and South Africa have each won it twice. The All Blacks are attempting to make it four wins on the trot but the consensus is that they have lost high calibre players like Howlett, Mauger, Collins, Hayman, McAlister and Kelleher and are refusing to pick players who play outside the country. This loss is severe and represents a serious problem!

Latest Betfair odds show: New Zealand [1.8] Australia [3.95] South Africa [4.1]. The market is wrong and not reflecting the loss/cohesion of the teams and this offers a real lay opportunity. My advice is to get on the bus!

With significant changes in playing personnel we should learn more about the All Blacks after their painful and disappointing World Cup failure when they take on England in Auckland 0835 BST. Betfair odds: New Zealand [1.12] England [9.2] Draw [75]. The betting suggests carnage, it could be worse than that! You expect them to improve dramatically from the Ireland game against a scrambled England side.

South Africa won the 2007 World Cup playing a rigidly constructed game that had little vision or intuitive skill attached to it but Peter De Villiers understands the need to broaden his country's game. He promises progress with an innovative hand on the controls. You sense that they are coping best with migrating players.

Superb leader and Springbok captain John Smit said he was happy with Saturday's victory over Six Nations champions Wales and is looking forward to the opening Tri Nation match, a mouth-watering clash against the All Blacks in New Zealand. It is 10 years since the Springboks last won a Test match there but this represents a real chance to rid that monkey from their back!

The Springboks entertain Wales in Pretoria 1400 BST on Saturday and the fact that the brilliant Montgomery is not starting shows strength in depth. Peter de Villiers has added new finds to his squad including Spies, Kankowski, Mtawarira, Jantjes, Bekker and Watson. Matfield the world's best lock and certainly the best line-out exponent is recalled after disciplinary problems.

Despite Wales promising to be more competitive I expect another mauling by the Springboks. Betfair prices: South Africa [1.14] Wales [7.6] Draw [25.0].

Australian rugby embarks on a new era when Kiwi Robbie Deans becomes the first foreign coach to take charge of the exposed Wallabies. Deans has admitted that his team are underdone and lack battle hardness. Like the All Blacks they are rebuilding.

Adventurous Deans has predicted an attacking game full of passion against Ireland played in Melbourne on Saturday 1100 BST. Skipper Stirling Mortlock has cautioned against expecting miracles and leads a concerted effort of keep a lid on things.

Latest Betfair odds show: Australia [1.19] Ireland [6.2] Draw [50.0]. Ireland, with a settled Munster pack, represents the best chance of the home countries in getting a result, not that I would back them to win though Ireland +14.5 points at [1.9] represents real value.

The attraction of rugby union for me is the contrast of styles and some are a little obsessed with breaking new ground. I dismiss this notion, always believing that doing simple things well is the key. With that in mind if the World Cup were to be played tomorrow then the Springboks would win. If I was making a book on the 2008 Tri Nations then South Africa would be 5/4 favourites with New Zealand 6/4 and Australia 3. I concede that my prices include a bit of overround but I am not Betfair!

Tags: Rugby Betting, South Africa, Tri-Nations Betting, Wales