International Rugby Union Betting: New Zealand v England, First Test

International / Geoffrey Riddle / 12 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

It's the toughest test in World rugby. England's tourists visit Eden Park to face the All Blacks on their home patch. But can they make an impact? Geoff Riddle investigates.

An interesting fact to chew on while you mull over Saturday's clash between New Zealand and England at Eden Park, the stadium which hosts the 2011 World Cup final.

New Zealand have lost only three of their 43 home matches this century. In all three instances, they were downed by the best team in the world at the time in Australia (2000, 2001) and England (2003). It's a startling statistic, and one that shows the enormity of the task that faces Rob Andrew's tourists, who are ranked fifth by the IRB.

Savvy Betfair traders though, seem not have missed a trick, and the All Blacks are as short as [1.12] for their second win this season, which probably equates to a handicap in the region of 16-17 points.

The word 'combinations' has been bandied about a lot in the build up to this weekend's clash and it is a word that could well hold the key to Saturday's fixture. Andrew has been keen to stress that he has named a side based on form, and if you look at England's pack, there is little reason to doubt the former England fly-half.

Wasps and Bath dominate the forwards, with man-mountain Andrew Sheridan and Gloucester's Luke Narraway the only two not representing the clubs that contested the first Premiership playoff semi-final.

The team is packed with club combinations, and in the right places, too. Harlequins' full-back Mike Brown and David Strettle in the back-three, Sale's Richard Wigglesworth and Charlie Hodgson at nine and ten, Wasps' James Haskell and Tom Rees in the back row, and finally front-rowers Lee Mears and Matt Stevens from Bath.

It's a strong-looking line-up from England, but there are some nagging doubts. The side is somewhat fresh-faced. Sheridan is the only remnant of the XV that lost in the final of the World Cup to South Africa, and it must also be remembered that shoo-ins like Simon Shaw, Jonny Wilkinson (or Danny Cipriani) and Nick Easter are absent due to injury.

The other problem is Charlie Hodgson. There are few fly-halves that have the raw ability of Hodgson, and his vision and strategic brain are often a wonder to behold. Inside-centre Olly Barkley is taking the kicks (although Hodgson kicked more points this season, Barkley was actually more accurate), in order to take the pressure off the Sale man. Hodgson is surely over his wobbles of the past, but in the face of Richie McCaw, and new flanker Rodney So'oialo, he faces a stern test and this could be his defining moment either way.

New Zealand though are not without their troubles. So'oialo has gone on record to say that he is finding playing blind-side flanker difficult rather than playing in his customary No.8 position, their combinations are not nearly as settled as England's and Carter continues to look indecisive. Perhaps extending his All Black contract this week may have helped. The fact that Mils Muliaina faces a late fitness test can't help either.

Last week Ireland used the appalling conditions to good effect to go into the break level. It was the first time in eight games that the All Blacks weren't leading after 40 minutes, and just the second time in 17, and it is clear that under Graham Henry, the first-half is where it all happens.
The forecast however, is for rain once more, and the likes of England winger Topsy Ojo and the Kiwi flyers of Sitiveni Sivivatu and Anthony Tuitavake will need to work hard if they are to even touch the ball.

Ireland contained New Zealand in much of the loose exchanges last week, despite being out-gunned, but where the Kiwis significantly outperformed their visitors was in the set-piece, which resulted in both of their tries. In winning 21-11 last week, New Zealand scored the fewest points at home since they faced the Lions in the wet of the first Test in 2005. With that in mind, it may just be that the conditions, the improved quality of their opponents, and the under-cooked nature of Henry's squad all combine to make this a low-scoring game, similar to last week in the cold and wind of Wellington.