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International Rugby Union Betting: Australia v France

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England are back in the northern hemisphere but Geoff Riddle's gaze remains down under as he previews Australia's fixture against France. The French only have one player remaining from their starting line up in the World Cup semi-final.

Australia [1.13] v France [8.2] Draw [65.0]

Let's face it, the fixture between Australia and France this weekend in Sydney's ANZ Stadium is a difficult one, purely because it is hard to know what both teams are capable of.

France coach, Marc Lievremont has only one Six Nations under his belt, and due to the Top 14 play-offs in France, he is on tour without players from the best four teams in his country.
Australia boast the most impressive coach of recent times in former Crusaders head-honcho Robbie Deans, but the Kiwi is still feeling his way in his new role, especially after his debut last week threw up a lucky 18-12 victory against Ireland in Melbourne.

Melbourne's match showed that Australia are vulnerable at the moment. They are vulnerable because of the new principles that Deans is trying to put in place, because of several new players in the starting line-up, and because unlike New Zealand and South Africa, the squad seem to be struggling to revert to the old laws under which this Test will be played.
Lievremont has named a pretty experimental side, with just one survivor from France's starting line-up which lost to England in the World Cup semi-final.

From what we have seen both last weekend, and in the Six Nations, it seems that France aren't without hope, despite trading at around [8.2]. Last week Ireland dominated possession and territory. The Wallabies managed to live off less than 40% of both, despite winning, and that should be like manna from heaven to French supporters.

Although we do not know too much about the players who will turn out for Les Bleus this weekend (hands up anyone who knows anything about Brive's Alexis Palisson?), it is quite easy to get a profile about how Lievremont intends to play.

In the Six Nations France enjoyed the most possession out of any team. The statistics also show that in true French counter-attacking style, over half their tries were scored from positions outside of their own half, and the richest source of those tries were from turnover ball. Furthermore, they were excellent at keeping their opposition at bay, generally only letting them score from positions inside their 22. It is clear therefore, that if Australia cannot drum up enough possession, or territory, this time around against a team that finished higher than last week's opponents Ireland in the Six Nations, the [1.13] about Robbie Deans' men may look laughable come the final whistle.

Another feature of France's play in the northern hemisphere championship, was that they concentrated on the first half, and lapsed in the second half. Seven of the 11 tries that they scored were in the first half, while six of the seven tries that they conceded were after the interval. For anyone who is interested in such statistics, France have scored the first try of the match in the last three fixtures between these two sides, and in five of the last seven.
It was clear to anyone who watched the French throughout the course of the Six Nations, that Les Bleus were hell-bent on scoring tries. They were the only side in the competition that crossed the whitewash more times than they scored penalties. This may have something to do with their poor accuracy rate when kicking at the posts, which saw them sit only above Italy in the rankings at 70%. That is 10% worse than last season.

That could all change though, with Francois Trinh-Duc moved to inside-centre, and the Top 14's fourth-highest points scorer this season, Benjamin Boyet, slotting in at fly-half. Wise old head Dimitri Yachvili also kicks, and it will be useful to have him at scrum-half inside the greenhorn Boyet.

So that is what can be expected of France, and with the visitors trading at a juicy-looking [8.2] it may be worth laying Australia at [1.13] pre-match with a view to backing them at a bigger price in-running.The half-time full-time double result may also be interesting, certainly in-running, as France-Australia currently trades at [7.2].