International Rugby Betting: Will Australia finish tour on a bum note?

International / Geoffrey Riddle / 27 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Hook grabs a handful of Argentina's Santiago Fernandez during last weekend's 33-16 win

"I can’t pretend to believe that France are a bargain at the high street prices of 5-4, but the layers on Betfair are starting to tempt me in at [2.4], which equates to a handicap of nearly five points. I think France by 1-12 points could be the real value though. "

It's been a good autumn for the northern hemisphere (okay, forget about England) and there's an outside chance of another pair of upsets when France and Wales take on the All Blacks and Wallabies on Saturday

In 2008 the northern hemisphere sides beat the Tri-Nations teams just once in 20 encounters. During the autumn international window, the southern hemisphere teams were handicap winners seven times in 11 games. And yet, this season the Six Nations have struck back with a vengeance.

France upset the odds when beating New Zealand on their own patch in Dunedin's so-called 'House of Pain'. Les Bleus followed up that famous victory with a defeat of the world champion Springboks a fortnight ago in Toulouse and Australia buckled under a rare Scottish onslaught last weekend to go down to the Scots for the first time in 27 years. The Wallabies also failed to win in Dublin, too. What on earth is happening here? Perhaps more crucially, can punters expect things to go the northern hemisphere's way this weekend when the Tri-Nations take on the pride of the north?

If the clues from France's magnificent double header against New Zealand in the summer are to be believed then Marc Lievremont's side have a cracking chance of beating the All Blacks in the cauldron of Marseille. France have an awesome record in front of their patriotic fans in the Stade Velodrome, winning eight of their nine games there this decade. Argentina snuck a win there in 2004 when the Pumas were in the foothills of their marvellous journey that swept them to third place in the 2007 World Cup, but that's it. The last time New Zealand made the trip to the Mediterranean port, they were thrashed 42-33, when tries by Xavier Garbajosa, Olivier Magne and Fabien Galthie added to a virtuoso performance by fly-half Christophe Lamasion.

France won the first summer Test in June against New Zealand through a combination of large amounts of turnover ball and fearsome defensive tackling. All in, France turned over the All Blacks twice as many times and they tackled around two-and-a-half times as much.

It was a frightening display of commitment, but crucially, New Zealand played in Dunedin without both Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. A week later, still without their two leaders, the All Blacks mastered the breakdown and achieved parity in the turnover count. They won 14-10.

France will only beat New Zealand this weekend therefore if the well-balanced back-row of Thierry Dusatoir, Fulgence Ouedraogo and Julien Bonnaire can combine to shut down both Carter and McCaw. Last week against England, flanker Lewis Moody reduced Carter to a mundane level, terrorising the All Black playmaker, even popping up at times when the whistle had gone. New Zealand's record points scorer missed two chances at goal as a consequence, and badly scuffed one to boot. I can't pretend to believe that France are a bargain at the high street prices of 5-4, but the layers on Betfair are starting to tempt me in at [2.4], which equates to a handicap of nearly five points. I think France by 1-12 points could be the real value though.

I thought that South Africa would beat the French a fortnight ago, but a combination of the partisan crowd in Toulouse and general Springbok fatigue put paid to that. Straight up, and not taking into account the fact that South Africa have had a pitiful autumn, I thought the Springboks would have been something like five-point favourites for their match with Ireland. But they aren't and although my head believes that the Irish are a lay at [2.2], I think there are too many unknown factors in play here to bet, what with Jonathan Sexton now playing at fly-half instead of Ronan o'Gara for the home side.

Bet of the week though has to be Wales against Australia at [2.16]. Forget all this talk about how up for this the Wallabies are going to be after their shambolic defeat to Scotland. It's an international Test match against Wales. These guys are professionals. Wales have come so close this autumn to putting together some excellent rugby. Although his distribution skills are missed somewhat, James Hook could be a truly magnificent full-back. His scything runs against Samoa were extremely difficult to read.

Australia were looking forward to their first Grand Slam since 1984 but have fallen well short. If you give one iota of credence to the International Rugby Rankings, then results this weekend could contribute to Australia being rated the worst Wallaby side ever. That's quite a statement, and one that means Australia shouldn't be favourites in Cardiff, no matter how pumped up they are.