International / Geoffrey Riddle / 27 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Australia are likely to be out of sight by the time the Welsh finally get playing in the second half, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Forgive me for asking questions, as you are supposed to be coming to this page for some answers, but have I missed something?

Why on earth are Australia such an attractive price at [1.6] to beat Wales in Cardiff this weekend? I appreciate that Wallaby coach Robbie Deans has made four changes to the starting line-up that beat France 18-13 last weekend, but all four of those players are international standard. Some might say that Phil Waugh is better than his flanking pal, George Smith.

The last time these two teams met was in a Pool match at last year's World Cup, and Australia ran out 32-20 winners in Cardiff. If you look at that match, Australia played with 14 men for 20 minutes after Drew Mitchell and Nathan Sharpe spent time in the bin. The handicap with the regular bookmakers that day was in the region of 9-12 points in Wales' favour. Today the best handicap deficit you can find about Australia is two points. What on earth is going on?

Wales' skipper Ryan Jones highlighted some areas of distinction in his side's autumn campaign earlier this week. He said: "If we can marry our first half against the All Blacks with our second half against South Africa, we will be right up there."

To be fair to him, Wales were pretty feisty in the first half against New Zealand last week, getting to the break with their noses in front 9-6. What about the game against Canada though? Have we all forgotten that? Both Ireland and Scotland kept the Canadians from the tryline, yet Wales only scraped home 34-13, and were only winning 10-6 at half-time.

Wales face a massive challenge, particularly as the Six Nations have struggled markedly this autumn against the southern hemisphere. In the 12 games so far against the southern hemisphere tourists, only Ireland's scrappy 17-3 victory over Argentina, and France's 12-6 win over the same opposition have provided the Europeans anything to cheer about. This has been barely mentioned, but it must not be forgotten that the SANZAR nations of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have been playing the new Experimental Law Variations since February, while over here the players were introduced to them competitively as late as September.

Australia will not be easy prey in the first half. They have been leading at half-time in no fewer than 15 of their last 18 fixtures. They have scored the first points of the match in 16 of those 18 games, 13 of which were a penalty. As such, the [2.9] about an Aussie penalty being the first scoring play looks generous.

Wales' first-half performance last week against the All Blacks was the best rugby they have played in the first 40 minutes since they monstered Argentina 24-7 in the first half of their friendly in August last year. Since that game, Wales have been a second-half side, scoring 280 points after the interval when compared to the 151 points they have accumulated in the first half.

In the last eight years, Australia have led on the road 19 times at the break. Surprisingly, they lost four of those games, one of which was to Wales. The only other blot on their record was the 29-29 draw against the Welsh in 2006, when they were leading 17-16 at half-time.

Those two comebacks by Wales, however, were the only two successes in the Millennium Stadium when the Dragons found themselves behind at half-time. They've lost the other 22 games when they were trailing at the interval. Not a good sign.

Australia look a blinding trade at [1.6]. For those of you who can't stomach a bet for the full 80 minutes, get on the Aussies early and trade out before the Welsh come driving back in the second half, spurred on, no doubt, by countless renditions of "Bread of Heaven."