International / Cormac O'Keeffe / 20 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Ireland played well against New Zealand but ultimately came up short against an outstanding defence. However, they should have enough to prevail against the Pumas, says Cormac O'Keefe.

After the disappointing anti-climax of lasts week's defeat against the All Blacks, Ireland must pick themselves up for a far more significant clash. Last week proved that Ireland are not yet able to challenge the best team in the world but luckily they only rarely have to meet anyone in the same league as New Zealand.

Ireland need to win this game to be guaranteed of eight place in the IRB rankings, ahead of the World Cup draw on December 1st. If they play as well as they did last week then they should have enough to see off their nemesis in what should be a tight affair.

Ireland's cause will be massively aided by the absence of Felipe Contepomi. The Pumas captain is ruled out with an infection to a cut on his hand and his absence will leave a huge void of creativity in the Pumas backline. Argentina will also miss his goal-kicking and will have to rely on the boot of Hernandez to keep in touch with Ireland. Hernandez was Ireland's tormenter in chief in the world cup with three drop goals in the 30-15 defeat that sent Ireland crashing out of the competition and ultimately cost Eddie O' Sullivan his job. Hernandez has tried drop goal after drop goal this year with Stade Francais and should do the same on Saturday. The first score of the game to be a drop goal is priced at [11.0] and this represents great value.

Ireland have a lot of scores to settle with Argentina and have more to play for in terms of the world cup seedings than the Pumas as they know all too well the perils of being in a tough world cup group. Argentina are trying to hold on to fourth place in the rankings at the expense of England but the fixtures that the English face should ensure that the South Americans are safe in fourth and will thus avoid being in a group with any of the tri nations.

The Irish back-line made some decent breaks against an outstanding All Blacks defence last week and should find it easier to make hay against Argentina, especially since Geordan Murphy comes into replace Demspey at full-back. Murphy will add flair to the backs and should also be well able to deal with the aerial bombardment from Hernandez that caused so much difficulty in the meeting of the sides at the world cup. Where Ireland may struggle is in the lineout, especially if Paul O' Connell doesn't recover from the dead leg he received at the weekend.

At least the throwing into the lineout should improve as Kidney has seen sense and dropped Rory Best in favour of Jerry Flannery. The ridiculous policy of having one Ulster representative on the Irish side means that Stephen Ferris starts at blindside flanker. One position is left open pending Alan Quinlan's appeal against a three-match ban.

In summary, Ireland should have enough to beat a side who have shown spirit and courage but a lack of flare and decisiveness in their narrow defeat to France and hard-fought victory over Italy.

Last week was Ireland's first real competitive match under Kidney (Canada was more like a training match) and you can expect them to come on a lot for that run out. Munster showed in their defeat to the All Blacks that there is remarkable strength in depth in Irish rugby and everyone will know that their place is under threat from a number of talented youngsters. This combined with the history between these teams and the desire for world cup seeding should make it a tense encounter that Ireland should win by about 7 points.

Recommended Bets
1) Ireland @ [1.6]
2) Ireland HT-FT @ [2.1]
3) Ireland -4 @ [2.0]
4) First score of the game to be a drop goal @ [11.0]