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International Rugby Betting: England v New Zealand

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Let's hope pasty boys England have cut back on the pastries, says Geoffrey Riddle, they're going to face a second-half onslaught against the All-Blacks on Saturday.

When I left Twickenham on Saturday night after England's record drubbing to South Africa, I got talking to a bloke who had brought his family up from Cornwall for the weekend.

"What a waste of money that was," he moaned to me.

"England were completely useless, and Phil Vickery looked like he'd eaten one too many pasties."

Vickery rates himself a Cornishman, and may indeed eat pasties, but in a round-about way, the man had a point. Vickery does look slightly tubby at the moment. Now I don't want to offend the gentle giant, but his condition may be symptomatic of what seems to be wrong about the entire England team right now. Perhaps they are not as fit as they might be.

When Martin Johnson was captain and Clive Woodward was at the helm, England prided themselves on being the fittest side in the world. It won them the World Cup. Since then, there has been an almost terminal decline in English rugby's fortunes, which culminated in the dire 42-6 thrashing last weekend.

In that match, with the game poised at 20-6 at half-time, the spread firms rated the supremacy line at around 11-13, which reflected the pre-match betting of pretty much a scratch contest. What happened after the interval was that the Springboks accelerated, whereas England dropped away markedly.

If you look at the last 13 competitive games at Twickenham, England have been outscored in the final 20 minutes by the opposition in ten of them. Perhaps it is a quirk of statistics, perhaps it is just one of those things. More likely though, it highlights that England are lagging behind most nations in terms of fitness, of being able to last the full 80 minutes, and at the death, to be able to think clearly under pressure.

This represents a huge challenge for Martin Johnson, because it just so happens that New Zealand haven't conceded a single point after the break in their last four games.

Betfair punters are not going to get much change out of backing the All Blacks in the match betting market at half-time though. Graham Henry's potential Grand Slammers are currently trading at [1.08], with England at [13.5].

Where there may be some potential gains though is in the handicap markets. If England put on a brave face in the first half, and restrict New Zealand to some sort of respectability, there may be some opportunities of siding with the All Blacks to cover handicaps that look out of reach at the time.

What's more immediate, however, is the razor-sharp thinking that Kiwi fly-half Dan Carter manages under pressure. Carter's thought-process is instantaneous, and what's more, he has the full range of skills to convert his thoughts into actions on the pitch, especially against England. The boys at www.bettorlogic.com have come up with some startling statistics about Carter, none more impressive than the fact that against the Six Nations he averages 17.45 points on the road in 11 Tests.

Betfair always have a market on fly-half points and it will be interesting to see what they go when the market goes up. Considering Carter average 19.5 points at Twickenham the under/over market will have to be pitched pretty high to dissuade me from going over.

What's more, when Carter plays against England, the men outside him also have a field day. New Zealand have scored 23 tries in the six games they have played against the Red Rose with the Cantabrian pulling the strings. Given England's slim chances of crossing the whitewash at all (I rate them no more than a 4-5 shot to dot down), I'd imagine that total tries at the 4.5 mark will be also a keenly traded market.

So sit back, get yourself one of Phil's pasties, and watch what is likely to be a fascinating encounter, with New Zealand dominating the second half. If it all goes wrong, at least we've got a marketable business idea to out-sell those dreadful stalls that have taken over every station in the land: http://www.westcornwallpasty.co.uk/