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International Rugby Betting: Canada give Scots chance to grab initiative

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Geoffrey Riddle delves into the www.bettorlogic.com database to find some interesting pointers for this weekend's internationals.

Scotland put in the performance of the autumn Tests last weekend when they pushed world champions South Africa to within four points at Murrayfield. That they were leading up until the 58th minute makes it all the more difficult to understand how Frank Hadden's men are ever going to have the confidence to grab a game by the scruff of the neck.

This weekend's match-up with Canada allows them to do just that. Scotland put in some impressive plays in their first outing against New Zealand a fortnight ago, despite being mauled 32-6 by the All Blacks. Although the feted flanker Richie McCaw was on the field, Scotland's back-row managed to turn over their visitors 22 times.

It was a similar story last weekend against the Springboks. Flankers Jason White and John Barclay alongside No.8 Ally Hogg, forced the South African's to cough up the ball 16 times, which is twice the amount that Scotland gave the ball away.

If Hadden's new-look back-row trio of Alasdair Strokosch, John Barclay and Simon Taylor manage a similar rate of return on Saturday, and you would expect that to be the case against lowly Canada, then the quick ball provided by them should see Scotland finally be able to convert that dominance at the breakdown into points.

They have a good history of beating minnows, too. At home, Scotland have played 16 teams who were below them in the IRB world rankings at the time over the last eight years and they have beaten 15 of them. Only Italy had the temerity to upset the apple cart when they won 37-17 in that crazy Six Nations game last year when the Azzurri scored three tries in the opening six minutes.

The only worry for handicap punters is the loss of dead-eyed goal-kicker Chris Paterson, who was taken off in the tenth minute in last week's fixture. Both replacement kickers Dan Parks and Phil Godman contributed to Scotland's five missed attempts at goal against South Africa, and Godman, who starts, will need to bring his A game to the match held in Aberdeen.

Punters may look at the fact that Ireland were considered 32-point favourites against the Canadians two weeks ago, and that Scotland have no right to be similarly as short. You can back Scotland on a 26.5-point handicap on Betfair at [1.72], although with bigger handicaps available in the betting village, that price is likely to drift.

The Wales v New Zealand game looks very tricky, especially as Wales have hardly impressed in either of their outings this season. Coach Warren Gatland has been furious with his squad for their under-par performances and the All Blacks have had a punishing schedule and look to be interested in just getting over the line each time.

The bet of the weekend has to be Argentina though. In the last five fixtures between Ireland and the Pumas, Argentina have been handicap winners every single time. They've won the last three matches against Ireland, which included the 30-15 World Cup drubbing last year. We all know that Ireland have rid themselves of the malaise which engulfed the squad in the death throes of Eddie O'Sullivan's tenure, but are they really that much better?

They were pretty dreadful last week against the All Blacks, and it has to be remembered that the boffs at the IRB consider Argentina a significantly better side than their hosts. At [3.05], the visitors look massive value, and I'll be looking to oppose Ireland on the -4.5 line at anything up to around [1.8].

As for France v Australia, the prices look similar to the Wallabies' clash with England last week, which is probably fair, considering Les Bleus must be rated along the same lines as Johnson's England. Even the first scoring play market seems right. The Aussies have opened the scoring with a penalty in every away game so far under coach Robbie Deans, but France have an excellent record at home. There will be other opportunities....