International / Geoffrey Riddle / 05 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle is very excited about the internationals at Twickenham and Cardiff this weekend. However, the home nations both face tests of stamina as they take on world rugby's fittest athletes...

"England will have to build up a decent half-time lead. With Australia’s propensity to give away costly penalties and a malfunctioning lineout, England can surely remain competitive for the first half."

Lawrence Dallaglio said at the weekend that if two international teams are of roughly the same ability, "the game is won in the last 20 minutes."

You would expect a man who was part of the 2003 world-cup wining side to say that. But Dallaglio's comments help shed light on this weekend's enthralling internationals when England clash with Australia at Twickenham and Wales's take on New Zealand in Cardiff.

Dallaglio's assumption will not be music to the ears of another great England player, Jeremy Guscott, who said last Sunday in one of his many columns, that the England squad were not fit enough. I flagged this up here last November. In some ways, England coach Martin Johnson has said as much since he took charge last autumn, and it will be interesting to see whether they can hold out against Australia for a full 80 minutes.

If you scan the national press of Australia, you will know that similar accusations have been made against their national side, too. Take this well-argued diatribe for instance, from the legendary Sydney Morning Herald rugby writer, Spiro Zavos. The important point is that Zavos contrasts the fitness of the Wallabies with the fitness of South Africa and New Zealand, the two teams that put record-breaking defeats on England when they last visited Twickenham. If you look at the Wallabies matches against New Zealand in particular, you will see that they have an unnerving tendency to blow half-time leads, something which again occurred in Tokyo last weekend.

Since Robbie Deans took over from John Connolly last June, Australia have led at the break in 17 of their 24 matches. In five of those games where they led at half-time, they subsequently lost to New Zealand, but the All Blacks were the only team to overhaul them in that selection of games. Quite simply, the All Blacks are most likely the fittest team in world rugby at the moment. The stats support that view because since the start of 2008, they have scored 311 first-half points, against 382 second-half points. So how are Wales and England going to counteract this fitness inferiority?

From his team selection, England coach Martin Johnson clearly believes that the only chance England have of beating the Aussies for the first time since Marseille is by battering them into submission. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a man who played lock, he jettisoned Ben Foden and Mathew Tait - both incisive, but willowy runners - and has favoured the power and pace of Mark Cueto and Matt Banahan in the back-three. What's more, he's gone for Dan Hipkiss at outside-centre, another who can bust a few tackles. In combining Jonny Wilkinson and Shane Geraghty at 10 and 12, he has chosen England's two best distributors.

Australia's midfield defence is shot, with both skipper Stirling Mortlock and Berrick Barnes out. Although Quade Cooper was impressive against Gloucester in midweek, scoring 16 points, he makes up a greenhorn centre pairing with Digby Ioane. Be prepared for the likes of Monye, Banahan, Hipkiss and Cueto to be stationed just off Geraghty's shoulder. They'll either get a pop pass from the Northampton man, or Wilkinson will fire them through gaps in the brittle Aussie midfield with a miss-one.

England will have to build up a decent half-time lead. With Australia's propensity to give away costly penalties and a malfunctioning lineout, England can surely remain competitive for the first half. For what it is worth, I thought this would be a scratch match.

It looks like Wales might have a similar problem in the Millennium Stadium. Since Warren Gatland took the reins of Wales, he has molded them from a second-half team into a first half team. Last autumn, Wales led the mighty All Blacks 9-6 at the break and yet the Dragons went down in flames, losing 29-9 to a rampant New Zealand. In contrast, they led Australia 15-10 a week later at the interval, and held on grimly to win 21-18.

Wales's handicap start stands at around 11-13 points with the high street bookies, and at that level, layers can often get away with match prices of anything between [1.33] to [1.18] about the favourite. It's a hell of a percentage change, and as New Zealand have put out an under-strength side, Betfair layers are in the dark. The visitors are unlikely to start at shorter than [1.25] though. With that in mind, I believe that New Zealand are a pre-match lay, with the view that they will trade at a much bigger price in-running. Henry's experimental side may struggle to gel from the start. When the tide turns though, be sure to get on.

So there we have it. Dallaglio may well be proved right this weekend, and the southern hemisphere giants may sweep clear in the final quarter. To use the old cliché; it's a game of two halves. Or perhaps, more accurately this time around, it's two games, of two halves.

Tags: Australia, England, Geoffrey Riddle, International Rugby Union Betting Odds, Jonny Wilkinson, Martin Johnson, New Zealand, Rugby Tips, The All Blacks, Wales