England v Pacific Islanders Betting Preview: Questions hang over Johnson's selection as Twickenham prepares for new dawn

International / Geoffrey Riddle / 06 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Riddle runs the rule over England ahead of Martin Johnson's first game as manager.

A new dawn is expected by many during England's rigorous November examination against the might of the southern hemisphere. A new coaching team is at the helm, there are some new faces in the first starting line-up, and the buzz word being bandied about is 'change'.

Martin Johnson named his XV to face the Pacific Islands on Tuesday. It was a bold selection, not least because the grizzled former World Cup-winning skipper unveiled four new caps.

What was particularly interesting was the importance he placed on the line-out. What a surprise! The 6ft 5inch Tom Croft was preferred at the expense of Wasps' James Haskell due to his perceived greater threat in the air.

In the same vein, Nick Kennedy of London Irish lines up alongside captain Steve Borthwick in the engine room, in place of Tom Palmer or Simon Shaw. Kennedy has been one of the best line-out operators in the Guinness Premiership for some time, and the opportunity given to him by Johnson is long overdue.

One has to note though, that last season London Irish lost the fewest line-outs, and were fourth in the table for line-outs won. There is irony here, however, because now that England have finally recognised Kennedy's talents, the Exiles have lost the second-most line-outs in the league this season and are just tenth in the table for line-outs won. Quite simply, players have started to work out Kennedy and his club team-mate Bob Casey.

The other interesting link to London Irish is, of course, Brian Smith, England's attack coach. The former Exiles man is full of exciting ideas, and his enthusiasm and knowledge are well documented. But what exactly did Smith achieve at Irish? Sure, they looked cute in attack last season but there were seven teams in the league who scored more tries than them over the course of the campaign. England cannot afford to simply look good this month, and crossing the tryline in every game will be the least of what the Twickenham crowd will demand.

Johnson seems to have picked a backline to provide five-pointers, but if you look at the three-quarters objectively, there are cracks in the bold, attacking vision. It is a raw collection of players, brought starkly into contrast when you consider that five of the seven share just five caps between them.

London Irish's Delon Armitage, one of the newbies, has been a key component of the Madejski machine for the past two seasons, but at just 12st 8lbs he looks lightweight. Harlequins' Ugo Monye is the Premiership's highest tryscorer this season, but can be dodgy in defence.

And then there is Jamie Noon. Good old yeoman, Jamie Noon. The Newcastle centre has had his critics in the past. England fans have got to hope that the creativity inside him in the shape of Dannys Cipriani and Danny Care, plus the Kiwi import Riki Flutey, may bring into light his attacking qualities. These qualities are often overshadowed by his current defensive mindset, brought to the fore by necessity at club level and for England.

Johnson should pass his maiden test at HQ - his side are trading at [1.13] at the time of writing - but Saturday's test against the Pacific Islands is no gimmie. Sure, the Islanders have never won a Test before, but a proper look at the team-sheet shows that this is the strongest collection of Islanders yet.

Prop Census Johnson is a real rock around which the Islanders can float their hopes on, and although he's no Andrew Sheridan, Johnson packs a proper punch. The back-row have a dynamic look about them, with Toulouse No.8 Finau Maka one of the best performers in the Heineken Cup over the last few years. And who can forget the performances of flanker Nili Latu in the World Cup in France?

Betfair's liquidity at the time of writing is not immense, but one market which looks interesting is the number of England wins in November. Several of the high-street bookies have priced this up, so punters are not in the dark, and two wins is the favourite at about [2.36]. All four wins is priced at [12.0].

Johnson looks to have been very lucky with the fixture list, as whatever happens on Saturday and against Australia and South Africa, New Zealand will be starting their sixth consecutive game when they come to Twickenham.

Only two All Black squads have tasted Grand Slam glory. Graham Mourie's legendary side of 1978, who toured Europe for two months, and Tana Umaga's 2005 vintage, who played some of the best counter-attacking rugby ever seen.

This year's lot is not a patch on those, and England have one of their best opportunities in years of going through the card. They've just got to prove they are good enough. New dawn or false dawn? We'll know more by Saturday night.