International / The Betfair Contrarian / 20 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Six reasons why the Welsh overcome the All Blacks at the Millennium Stadium this Saturday.

On December 19 1953, Wales beat the All Blacks 13-8 at Cardiff Arms Park while the city's football team won 2-1 at Aston Villa to climb above Arsenal into sixth place in the old Division One. Since then, it's all been downhill for both parties, with Wales suffering 19 straight defeats against New Zealand while the Bluebirds have spent 47 successive seasons outside the top flight. More recently, however, Joe Calzaghe's Sports Personality of the Year win last December appears to have inspired a turnaround for Welsh sport this year, with Cardiff reaching the FA Cup Final and Wales completing the Six Nations Grand Slam.

On Saturday, the Contrarian expects Wales [9.0 on Betfair] to end their 55-year wait for victory over the All Blacks. All streaks must end. Here's why:

New Zealand lost in Cardiff last year

While Wales last beat New Zealand 55 years ago, last October the All Blacks lost at the Millennium Stadium - to France in the 2007 World Cup quarter final - the first time they had ever failed to make the World Cup final four. France were then reigning Six Nations champions, a title currently held by Wales. The closest Wales have come to beating the All Blacks since 1953 was four years ago when they narrowly lost 25-26 at the Millennium Stadium a few months before completing the Grand Slam to win the 2005 Six Nations. They also lost by just one point (12-13) in 1978 on the previous occasion that they completed the Six Nations Grand Slam.

New Zealand struggled at the Tri Nations

Although the All Blacks won the Tri Nations for the sixth time in seven years, it went to the wire with New Zealand having to come from behind to beat Australia 28-24 in the final game. This was only the second time in seven years that they lost at least a third of their games and it was on the previous occasion, in 2004, that Wales came within a point of ending their losing streak against them.

Wales may be able to take heart from England

Wales' Kiwi coach Warren Gatland can take can take heart from England's turnaround against southern hemisphere opposition. At the start of Sir Clive Woodward's reign they lost 13 of 14 clashes against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, but once they turned the corner they won 12 in succession.

Wales react strongly after home losses to South Africa

Wales went down fighting against world champions South Africa a fortnight ago and while they didn't pick up the scalp they were hoping for, history suggests they will emerge stronger from that defeat. In 2004, they were beaten 36-38 by the Springboks but then won nine of the next ten games. In 2005, a loss to South Africa was followed by successive wins at the Millennium Stadium, including a 24-22 win over Australia. Wales' last home defeat to the world champions came last November and was followed by a run of five straight victories to seal the Grand Slam at this year's Six Nations. This year's post-South Africa rally got underway with a 34-13 win over Canada last weekend.

Munster exposed New Zealand's vulnerability, Wales are well placed to exploit it

On Tuesday, New Zealand faced Heineken Cup champions Munster, who despite having ten Irish players missing and starting at 33/1 to win, came within minutes of shocking the All Blacks. The Irish side led New Zealand, who started eight players that played the opening tour match against Scotland, 16-10 at half-time and 16-13 with four minutes remaining before a last-gasp try saw them fall to a 16-18 defeat. If Wales start strongly like Munster they are far more likely to capitalise on the advantage, as in each of their last eight home games they have performed stronger in the second-half than they have in the first.

The All Blacks consider Wales their biggest threat

All Blacks captain Richie McCaw has identified Wales as the team they are most likely to slip up against. McCaw said: "Wales will pose the biggest challenge to us physically and, if their front five performs, they have the ability behind to run amok. If you get things wrong against them, you are in for a long day."