The Perfect Punter: Chapter 17- Know what's in the mind of those you're betting on

Heineken Cup / Perfect Punter / 25 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

John Daniell gives us some fascinating insights into the issues of self-belief and expectation that go through a professional rugby player's mind in “Confessions of a Rugby Mercenary”.

"take the smack in the mouth, put your hands in your pockets and take the three points"

This week The Perfect Punter tells us why being comfortable with one's own mind is only half the battle and why we as punters also need to know what's going on in the mind of those we are actually punting on....

Anyone who has had a bad run of punting knows how hard it can be to know your own mind, be sure of your opinion. Confidence was one of the key words that readers of this column chose to describe the times that you are gambling well, and it doesn't take long for the opposite of that to materialise, and gradually chip away at your well- thought out profits. Once you have got to the point of knowing your own mind though, the next thing to search for is to get as far into the mind of those on whom you're risking your money as you can.

You hear this kind of approach in horse racing all the time, and it pays dividends. The top racing tipsters and analysts will always be doing their best to second guess owners and trainers, to work out what tactics on a certain horse will be, to work out just why a horse is running in a certain race and what the real expectations are for it.

Apart from generalisations like "they'll want to win there", and "they'll be desperate for the three points", and with the admirable exception of people like Kevin Pullein in the Racing Post, I don't feel that we make the same effort to mind read those that we are gambling on when we bet on other sports. Which is why, in the week that the William Hill Sports Book of the Year is announced, I've been reading John Daniell's book, "Confessions of a Rugby Mercenary", with real interest. As it happens, I've been largely disappointed by this New Zealand player's account of his time in France.

The book has been billed as rugby's answer to Simon Hughes' "A Lot of Hard Yakka", but falls some way short of Hughes' brilliant account of a cricketer's life. Hughes is still responsible for relating one of my favourite sporting stories, an exchange between Graham Gooch, at first slip, and John Emburey, at second:

"You got anything planned for the winter then Embers?"

"I thought I might get a job doing something with computers."

"What you gonna do? Paint 'em?"

Sadly, these kind of anecdotes are largely missing from Daniell's book, although I loved the character of the Georgian prop known as Gorgodzilla, and the lunatic coach of Castres, Laurent Seigne. One thing that Daniell does provide though, is an insight into the way that sportsmen think, and we should all latch onto this as punters, whether rugby is our chosen sport or not.

At Montpellier's pre season training camp, at that time of year when hope allegedly springs eternal and anything might happen:

"the players agree that we should be finishing the season between sixth and eighth in the championship." Daniell admits that this sounds odd, but that sportsmen, despite what they say in the media, are both honest and realistic about where their team stands in the scheme of things. We'd do well to remember this the next time that Wolves go to Chelsea, that Xerez go to Madrid, that Bologna go to Inter, and declare they'll give it their best shot, and that "you never know what might happen." They know, the players always know.

And they also know the significance of certain results, and they know the meaning of defeat, the relevance of fear. After losing an early season home game, Daniell remarks that: "this in turn, will mark us out as a potentially winnable away game in the eyes of all the other teams, so they will approach the match in a different way than they might otherwise have done. Vultures." So once a team has lost at home, and lazy wisdom might suggest that they will "bounce back and get the win that they need", don't forget that the players now feel that they CAN lose at home, that they ARE vulnerable, and that any team travelling there now merits serious consideration.

I could quote sections of Daniell's innermost thoughts endlessly, but here are just two more nuggets which may help you through your betting week. The first is on the subject of substitutions and their significance: "At 24-6 I am sent on to take Alex Codling's place, and after we kick a penalty I allow myself to think that perhaps the cavalry has arrived just in time. (Reserves love believing this kind of crap)." Games are much harder to turn round than they might look, and the arrival of a substitute who's already lost some confidence from being placed on the bench isn't ever going to make that much difference.

My favourite line from the book, though, comes from one of Daniell's coaches when he was growing up in New Zealand, and it works pretty well as a mantra for any punter who has had one of those confidence snapping stretches. The coach in question is called Kevin Horan, and the line applies as neatly to the vagaries of life, and punting, as it does to taking one for the team in a game of rugby: "take the smack in the mouth, put your hands in your pockets and take the three points." Aye aye to that.

I hope that John Daniell doesn't win the William Hill, as I think that there are better books on the list (Ian Hawkey, anyone?), but we should all read him, learn what's inside a sportsman's mind, and move on.

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