Skrela and Stade Francais might not have it all their own way

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 16 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Racing Post's Rugby man Geoffrey Riddle previews the key clashes of this weeekend's Heineken Cup action

The Heineken Cup continues this weekend and Betfair punters have a showcase fixture on each of the three days of action. First up we have Premiership table-toppers Gloucester, who host Welsh side the Ospreys at Kingsholm.

The handicap line has been set at 8.5, which is broadly in line with the fixed odds firms, although Hills and Stan James separate the teams with a six-point deficit. For those keen to support Dean Ryan's men therefore, that means you'll probably have to pay under 1.9 for the privilege at this level.

The Cherry and Whites have only lost two matches at home in this competition - both to French sides - although the three Welsh regions that have made the trip over the Severn Bridge have all snagged a bonus point.

Cardiff went down by four points in 2004 and by just six in 2001, while Llanelli came within a whisker of success at Kingsholm in the same year when they went down 28-27.

These results are all relative though, and at this point in time, Gloucester are playing some scintillating rugby that few teams can live with. They smashed Ulster last week 32-14 at Ravenhill and secured the fastest bonus point in the tournament's history. Ulster are currently languishing at the bottom of the Magners League so the result has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but the manner of the victory was a statement in itself.

Ospreys coach Lyn Jones has named the most powerful squad at his disposal and the inclusion of former All Black Marty Holah at open-side should help grease the wheels of the Welsh region's machine. I seriously rate Holah, whose efforts over the years have unfortunately been eclipsed by Richie McCaw but he is up against a very mobile back-row in the shape of Fiji's Akapusi Quera, Alasdair Strokosch and sevens star Luke Narraway.

The Welsh side have certainly had their successes against English sides. They beat Sale in Stockport 18-7 earlier this year, and their blitzed Harlequins 46-19 in 2004. Sale however, put out an under-strength team in January, with scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth at No.10.

The Ospreys were sluggish in beating Bourgoin 22-15 last week though and when you look at their efforts on the road against the best teams in Europe, they consistently come up short. They have gone down by double-figure margins at Stade Francais (twice), Leicester, Munster, Clermont and Toulouse which makes the 1.4 about Gloucester look a safe investment.
Sunday has a grandstand look about it with Bristol hosting Stade Francais, European Challenge Cup champions Clermont facing Munster in Limerick and Cup kings Toulouse receiving a rejuvenated Leinster.

Stade Francais [1.27] are a bit of a curate's egg on the road - good in parts. They have put in some huge performances in defeat this year, losing out by one point on a semi-final berth to subsequent champions Leicester at Welford Road in April and drawing with the Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium. On the flip side, they limped out 12-6 to Sale in Round four in last year's tournament.

The team sheet does not include World Cup star Juan Martin Hernandez and the Parisians have plumped for the more prosaic David Skrela at fly-half.

Stade just went through the motions last week in their routine 20-point victory over Harlequins in Paris, but although Bristol lost 34-18 to Cardiff, they actually led the Welsh region 13-3 at the Arms Park before refereeing decisions got in the way and changed the face of the match.

Richard Hill's side have looked to get on the score sheet as early as possible this season. They have crossed the whitewash in the first quarter in all of their matches at the Memorial Ground in the Premiership and they touched down before the half-hour mark when beating Llanelli in the Anglo-Welsh Cup.
Stade therefore look a classic lay-to-back proposition, a team who look too short initially, but could, and should, ultimately win, much like Toulouse did last week.

The twice winners of this competition scraped past Edinburgh by the skin of their teeth at the weekend, hanging on dourly for a 19-15 victory at an empty Murrayfield.

Leinster [3.6] put up one of the biggest performances of all time when beating Toulouse 41-35 back in 2006 when knocking out their French rivals in the quarter-finals in the Stade Municipal. This match takes place back in the rugby ground of Stade Ernest Wallon though, where Llanelli have been the only successful visiting team in this competition.

Heineken Cup matches at this ground average a staggering 54.9 points and with matches between Toulouse and Irish sides in France averaging just over 55, punters would be forgiven for taking a sneaky look at the total points market when Betfair go up with it.