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Heineken Cup groups reach boiling point

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It's the business end of the group stages of the Heineken Cup. Geoff Riddle gives us the lowdown on the shakedown.

For the first time in Heineken Cup history, the top spot in each Pool is up for grabs going into the final round. From the ultra-competitive Pool Five, which sees Munster, Wasps and Clermont all vying to escape what has been labelled the 'pool of death,' to the surprising Pool Three, where Cardiff and Bristol scrap to take advantage of the potential meltdown of Stade Francais.
There are only four match-ups this weekend which sees both sides gunning for something other than pride, although due to Leicester and Leinster's meagre efforts on the road in Pool Six, they are realistically hoping that Toulouse slip up to Edinburgh at the Stade Ernest Wallon, where they have lost just five times in 44 European ties.

Glasgow [2.56] v Saracens [1.7] Draw [28]

Call it what you will, but Glasgow's only two defeats in their last 20 matches at home came just after New Year. They lost 19-8 to Ulster just days after it became 2007, and the Dragons sneaked an 18-16 win on January 4th.
Fresh from a sobering 18-15 victory over Viadana last week, the Warriors have their biggest match for years on Friday when they take on Saracens in an attempt to reach the knock-out stages for the first time since 1997.
Glasgow will know that they missed out big time in Italy last week by not scoring four tries - they were about a 1.4 chance to win at the Stadio Luigi Zaffanella - and the missed bonus means that their visitors need just a bonus point to secure qualification.
Glasgow need to score a bonus-point of their own, and the win, but the small print dictates that they also have to score three tries more than Sarries in that scenario.
The cavalier approach that Sean Lineen's side are sure to adopt in pursuit of the whitewash is bound to create openings for one of the most free-scoring sides in the Premiership. When these two met at Vicarage Road in round one, the pair managed to compile 64 points between them. Traders should look seriously at the total points market therefore, it is pitched at 35.5, but heavy rain is forecast so watch out.

Munster [1.62] v Wasps [2.54] Draw [22]

Like the first match-up between these two in round one, this is the glamour tie of the group stage. A layer of gloss has been added however, coming from the fact that both sides are gunning for success. Wasps will finish top of Pool Five if they win, but Munster have the best home record in the competition having lost just twice at Thomond Park in their Heineken Cup history.
Ideally, Munster need to win by scoring four tries, as pool rivals Clermont, who play Llanelli at Stradey Park, will top the pool if both sides finish the group stage on 19 points.
It is a tantalising scenario and, in light of Llanelli's complete capitulation at Adams Park last week, one that brings up the very real possibility that reigning champions Wasps will miss out on a quarter-final berth.
On the plus side for Wasps is that English teams have often come closest to loosening Munster's iron grip in Limerick.
Leicester obviously won 13-6 there last season, and Harlequins have twice gained a bonus point there, while Saracens left with a one-point defeat in 2000.
It is fair to see the Irish side trading at 1.62 and at these levels, they look a fair bet to come out on top in the arm-wrestle between the current champions and the 2006 vintage.

Bristol [1.65] v Cardiff [2.24] Draw [18]

Due to Stade Francais' under-par performances in Pool Six, both Cardiff and Bristol will be fighting it out for top spot in Pool Three should Harlequins managed to repel Stade Francais on Sunday.
Both matches start at the same time, so in-running traders will need to be at their most diligent, because if Stade start to steamroll the Stoop residents, Bristol may well give up the ghost.
Things are difficult enough for the West Country side anyway. They have a mountain to climb to reach the knockout stage for the first time in the senior competition, having made it that far four times in the European Challenge Cup. They must beat Cardiff by more than 24 points and make sure they score more tries than the Blues, provided of course that Stade do not win in Twickenham.
Coach Richard Hill has named a strong side for the clash making three changes, one enforced, with Anthony Elliot coming in for David Lemi on the wing. It is a signal of intent by the former scrum-half and one which Cardiff will have to front up to.