Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 15 January 2009 / Leave a comment

European rugby cranks up a notch this weekend with the first of two consecutive rounds of the Heineken Cup which will decide who goes through in to the knock-out stages. Geoffrey Riddle picks the best bets from the key matches...

The Pool winner is yet to be decided in any of the six Heineken Cup groups, the most fiercely contested of which is Pool Three featuring Perpignan, Leicester, Treviso and the Ospreys.

Leicester and Ospreys are vying for top spot, but having a bet on Saturday's fixture between Perpignan and the Welsh outfit is fraught with danger until the team news filters out.

Perpignan are unlikely to qualify for the knock-out stage. They have signed Dan Carter, however, and at great expense, too. Perpignan also have a significant bee in their bonnet about the treatment of Marius Tincu, their prop who was banned for 18 weeks for gouging, and who subsequently played for his team against Castres in the Top 14 last month.

The Catalans have also signed up for Phil Greening's World Club Challenge in July, something that looks increasingly grandiose, given that Saracens, Gloucester and the Western Force are taking part. An under-performing quarter if there ever was one.

Perpignan need a big performance to justify their lofty ambition, particularly as they aim to protect their 14-match unbeaten run at home. I envisage a strong home side on Saturday but whether Carter starts is a mystery. The All Black sensation came off at half-time in last week's 40-14 home blitz of Bourgoin and has an inflamed Achilles tendon, which, supposedly, rules him out until next weekend's assignment against Treviso.

Perpignan's performance against Bourgoin shouldn't be taken at face value though because Bourgoin flanker Julien Frier was sent off in the 38th minute when the score was just 13-5 to Perpignan. If you study Perpignan's form closely this season, they have struggled against the best teams, receiving beatings at the hands of Stade Francais, Clermont, and Toulouse.

The Ospreys are probably close to being as good as that trio, but it will be interesting to see what level Betfair trade at. I thought the Ospreys would be in the region of seven to nine points better off for this, especially if Carter plays, but that might not be the case.
Skybet's Mike Triffitt explains: "I went as high as six or seven in our trading meeting," said the rugby compiler. "My colleague reckons there will be plenty of three or four out there though, as the Ospreys are generally a well-backed team."

It's a fiendishly difficult weekend, and anyone who needs to brush up quickly on how all the teams are currently performing could do worse than have a quick glance at www.eurorugby.com. It's a fascinating website and ranks teams throughout Europe on their past performances.

As you can see, Wasps are considered an inferior team to Leinster, who they meet at Twickenham on Saturday in what is being billed as the 'Battle of the Capitals'.

This is a very interesting betting heat. Leinster's away record is pretty poor t. This season they have failed to beat Cardiff, Connacht, Glasgow and Castres on the road, and none of those defeats were due to coach Michael Cheika putting out weakened teams. With the exception of Cardiff, those sides are certainly worse than Wasps, and it's probably fair to consider Wasps as slight favourites for this.

The clash takes place at Twickenham and although, it is considered a neutral venue, this clearly favours the English side, despite the fact that 7,000 fans are coming across the Irish Sea. You've only got to look at the records of English teams at neutral venues in England against European competition. There have been 14 such games by my reckoning over the years, and the Premiership teams lost just three of those.

Sky Sports has its work cut out over the next few days, screening eight live European matches in all. The bet of the weekend, however, is Magners League minnows Newport-Gwent Dragons in their fixture with Bath.

I don't see Sunday's clash in Newport as being much more than a five-point start for the Welsh side. Sure, Bath's season has rested on their away form and there will be many who will see the postponement of their match against Wasps last weekend as a blessing. Despite their reputation, however, the Dragons are in good form, and they look a bet on the handicap, which is likely to be somewhere in the region of seven points. At something like [3.1] in the match betting market, I'd probably be trading them, too.

The Dragons have been a real handful recently, beating the Ospreys just before Christmas, and narrowly losing 21-19 to Cardiff on Boxing Day. It all came together against Glasgow last weekend, however, when they became just the second team in 12 months to taste victory in the Magners League at Firhill. That seems good enough form for me.