Heineken Cup Semi-Finals Betting: Do or die time

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 29 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

"There is a real aura that surrounds Munster, and I think their price for Sunday's fixture is more down to weight of trade expected, especially when you consider that Biarritz are the relative minnows in the semi-finals - they are the only team in the last four to have not lifted the European Cup."

Geoffrey Riddle talks us through this weekend's semi-finals in European club rugby's blue-ribband event..

At the outset of the Heineken Cup I believed that Biarritz were a massive back-to-lay vehicle, and having tipped them at [23.0], I reckoned on having to bail out of my bet either in the quarter-finals or ahead of this weekend's semi-finals. And having edged out the Ospreys in the last eight, there seemed no better time to trade out, with the Baques scheduled to host Munster on Sunday in a repeat of the 2006 final.

Munster have etched their names in Heineken Cup folklore over the years with their never-say-die road victories in the knockout stages. The Irish side account for just over a quarter of all away wins in the Heineken Cup knockout stages, which includes those victories in neutral stadiums that are in the host side's country.

The visitors will have to do without their talismanic general Paul O'Connell at the Estadio Anoeta, the home of Real Sociedad in San Sebastian, because last summer's Lions skipper has a groin strain. The Red Army, however, are hardly lacking leadership with Ronan O'Gara, the leading points scorer in the tournament this season, John Hayes and Donncha O'Callaghan each appearing in a record eight semi-finals.

But price dictates pretty much everything in trading, and I was surprised to see that the betting village considers Biarritz as the underdogs in their own backyard. As a corollary to that the [5.5] about Biarritz winning the Heineken Cup also looks generous. It is fair to suggest that Imanol Harinordoquy and Co have to cede some sort of advantage by playing over the border in Spain, but surely that simply reduces the difference between the two sides to zero, and the true price is something nearer a scratch match. Five of the eight teams in the last five years to have been given a handicap start in a home game, or a 'home' game on neutral soil, in the knockout stages won the fixture anyway.

There is a real aura that surrounds Munster, and I think their price for Sunday's fixture is more down to weight of trade expected, especially when you consider that Biarritz are the relative minnows in the semi-finals - they are the only team in the last four to have not lifted the European Cup. If you take the French at face value then of course Munster deserve their tag as favourites. Biarritz have blown their league campaign, and last week's loss to Clermont means that if they are to play in the Heineken Cup next year they either must win the tournament, or rely on Toulouse to pick up their fourth European Cup. Yet a team of Biarritz's ability should not trade at odds-against in, ostensibly, a home match to any side, let alone to a Munster side that slipped up at home to the Ospreys last time out.

In fact, Toulouse are the only semi-finalists coming into this weekend's fixtures on the back of a win, after Leinster's understrength battalions were thrashed by Glasgow last time out. Against Glasgow, Leinster coach Michael Cheika gave the night off to the 15 players who started the Heineken Cup quarter-final victory over Clemont, so punters should not really read too much into last Friday's 30-3 defeat ahead of Saturday's showdown in Le Stadium.

The Irish province will be hoping to replicate their astonishing 41-35 win against Toulouse in Le Stadium in 2006, when tries by Brian O'Driscoll, Shane Horgan and Denis Hickie gave Leinster a 20-point lead five minutes to go. They trade at [3.6] to repeat the trick.

And that match could well form a template for Saturday's encounter, with scorelines creeping up all over Europe over the past few months after a dire first-half of the season. In the quarter-finals last month all four matches busted the total points quotes, with Munster's 33-19 victory over Northampton the lowest-scoring fixture of that round.

This situation reflects how the game, and total points markets, have reacted since referees were told to officiate the breakdown more strictly in order to stop teams illegally slowing the ball down. It's amazing really how quickly things have turned around. But those who like to dabble in the points markets should consider the tries markets, too. Of the 28 semi-finals to have been played so far only one has failed to produce a try - Biarritz's dour 18-9 victory over Bath four years ago.