Heineken Cup Round One Betting Tips: Ulster are massive value

Heineken Cup / Editor / 09 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win."

As the world's greatest club competition swings into action, Rugby Ken selects the best bets from the games featuring Irish clubs.

Ulster v Bath

Massive, massive, massive value is all I can say. Did the bookies watch Ulster last week? Seriously, sometimes the English bias in prices is just nuts; Ulster looked great and even though Llanelli are pants away from home, Bath are no great shakes either. Bath have only won once this season and that was away to Sale who aren't exactly setting the Premiership alight this season with only one win.

Ulster have a full-strength squad to pick from and even have Danelli back from injury on the bench. Their pack has looked strong and their backrow is very impressive. More importantly they seem to have jelled and got over being their own worst enemy by losing winable games. There was a period in the game last week where they looked like stepping back but they kicked on and scored more tries.

Bath don't seem to be firing in the back line and certainly can't compete with Ulster's powerful runners. Ulster have looked great these past two weeks and Humphries played and kicked well. Add in Paddy Wallace, who is a perfect player alongside strong runners like Trimble and Nagusa, and the White Knights are a formidable outfit.

Bath will front up in the pack but even with rain and a light wind predicted, I expect Ulster to win this. They have to win to prove they've evolved as their fans are still asking them questions. I personally predicted Ulster to be - 5 or -6 and can't believe what the bookies have produced. You can back both teams at evens or over in the outright.

Recommendation: Ulster to win at [1.98].

Leinster v London Irish

Leinster would have won the World Cup last Saturday - they were immense. From one to 22 they showed a level of desire that you wouldn't expect to see this early in the season. Considering the winning but slow start they've had, it was very surprising. I had a little tipple on the unders and was duly rewarded but there was no way even the most fervent Leinster supporter, such as myself, could have foreseen that scoreline.

The only change for Leinster is Ross coming in for the injured Stan Wright which is a good option to have. London Irish have practically full strength team as well and have been the form team in England, regularly hammering sides.

Leinster, however, boast one of the best defences and when in focus such as last week, they can be impenetrable. Kurk McQuilkan practically coached the team to the semi's based on excellent defence and scrambling defence. London Irish will probably score one try but I can see their forwards suffering against an in-form Leinster front line and back row.

The handicap of -7 on Leinster is probably a bit too high and inflated based on last week's result. Historically, Leinster would always do well one week worse the next but I think last season dispelled those myths. This should be a hell of an entertaining game and I think Leinster will either win a close contest by five points or else dominate and win by 15. Most likely the former. There should be rain in the morning till lunch but it should be a calm evening in Fortress RDS.

Recommendation: Leinster/Leinster halftime/fulltime at [1.73].