Heineken Cup Final Betting: Lions and Tigers prepare for fearsome battle

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 21 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Heineken Cup final seems to have been overshadowed by the Lions tour, but with Lions aplenty on the pitch, the Edinburgh extravaganza will be worth watching for those players alone, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

The attacking talent of Brian O'Driscoll, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald, and Harry Ellis will showcase their skills on the biggest stage in club rugby this Saturday, and it allows us all an opportunity to further asses their form ahead of the Lions jamboree that leaves on Sunday. With those stellar names taking to the pitch, and blended with the raw power of the returning Alesana Tuilagi, and the creativity of Felipe Contepomi, there will be a queue for those eager to back the 'overs' in the total points market.

But that could be a mistake. Leinster have been developing a defensive system under their defence coach Kurt McQuilkin that is almost insurmountable. The most redoubtable outfit in Heineken Cup history, Munster, could not breach the blue line in that titanic all-Irish semi-final in Dublin three weeks ago. Only Wasps and Harlequins have actually crossed Leinster's tryline this Heineken Cup campaign, and when you consider that Castres and Edinburgh were in the same Pool as the Dubliners, that is a sustained defensive performance from Michael Cheika's side.

What was most impressive in that semi-final was the speed with which Leinster swamped the Munster line with their scramble defence. O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy moved up very quickly, but it was also the block-busting, back-row tackling of Jamie Heaslip, Shane Jennings and the incomparable Rocky Elsom, that forged a line of steel.

Elsom and Heaslip are useful in attack, too, punching holes in midfield, but their bulk is best used to create turnover ball. Leinster, therefore, do not mind playing 15 man rugby without possession.

The Irishmen face a defence of equal strength and resilience, however. Although the Tigers were fortunate on numerous occasions against London Irish last week in the Grand Final at Twickenham, the fact that they reduced the Premiership's most free-scoring team to just nine points was fascinating. The tackle ratio was 4:1 in favour of the Tigers, which just shows what a ferocious display that really was in front of the record-breaking crowd.

Richard Cockerill is slowly moulding his side into a similar outfit to that which he won two Heineken Cups with in 2001 and 2002. Tough, streetwise, and with an almost impossible winning mentality. You could see from their faces that it didn't matter to his team-mates when Jordan Crane was sent to the sin bin last week against the Exiles, because they just got on with the job in hand. It made it all the easier on Crane that Leicester did not concede a try in those 10 minutes, and that he scored the winning try. The back-row battle for possession will be fearsome.

So the 'unders' look the bet in this one. There have been 13 Heineken Cup finals to date, and the average total points make-up in that sample is 35.85 points. Now averages generally only tell half the story, but even if you delve a little deeper, the stats seem to support a short trade. Only three of those 13 matches had total points make-ups of over 40 points, and all being equal, you would imagine the [1.91] biting point for both sides of the market would be around 37-39 points.

As to who is going to win the whole thing, I can't really work it out. I would have thought that Leicester would be firmer favourites than they actually are, having envisaged something around [1.66], but realistically, Leinster can probably beat any team in Europe on their day, and the your-choice offer is fair.

The best approach may be to trade this in-running as a low-scoring, tight encounter is expected. An attempt to lay both sides at odds-on could be the right way to go, especially if you've found the 'unders' argument persuasive.