Heineken Cup Betting Preview: Tough trips for French trio - but value lies at Firhill

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 11 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

"To get round three started in the best way possible, the bet of the weekend just has to be Glasgow to beat Gloucester at Firhill."

It's been said for years that in the Heineken Cup the French can't travel. Naturally, when it comes to betting, gross generalisations usually lead to the poor house, but this weekend that view may well hold true, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

The trio of French sides that cross the Channel in round three of the Heineken Cup all look to have tough assignments. Perpignan have the unenviable task of trying to become the second team to defeat Munster at Thomond Park in this tournament. Toulouse try to cement their place at the top of Pool Five with a win in Cardiff, while Stade Francais reacquaint themselves with their old foes Ulster in Belfast.

Of the trio, the layers believe that Stade Francais have the best chance of registering an away win for the French. Despite Ulster floundering against Glasgow last week in the Magners League, things aren't going to be easy for the visitors.

Stade Francais have travelled to Ravenhill five times in European competition, and a 26-10 victory there last year was their only success. That reversal could be seen as the dawn of a new era, but Ulster saw off a strong Leinster side before November's international window, and they clearly have the ability.

The best way for backers to get with the Irishmen is in the half-time markets. Brian McLaughlin's squad start matches with a real fury. They have led at the interval in seven of their 10 encounters this season. Perhaps like the French themselves, Stade take time to get into their stride. They have led at half-time in only seven of their 17 fixtures this season. In-running traders can lay Stade in the match betting market with a view to getting with them at a later stage. It may be worth considering Ulster also in the various half-time markets, or even Ulster-Stade half-time/full-time.

On Saturday, Toulouse arrive in Cardiff having lost six of their last eight road fixtures. It's not a madly inspiring form guide, and it certainly doesn't propel you to back the 17 times French champions at long odds-on. Les Toulousains were awful against Brive last time out, conceding two tries in the opening seven minutes. They finally succumbed 27-21. Toulouse will be stronger this time though, boosted by the return of the frighteningly athletic Louis Picamoles, as well as Thierry Dusatoir in the back-row. Vincent Clerc will be back on the wing, too. Cardiff almost stopped London Irish in round two though, losing by a point, and a repeat of that effort will certainly see Toulouse trade a lot longer than their pre-match quotes.

One of Perpignan's finest hours was their semi-final victory over Leinster in Dublin in 2003. Since those heady days, their only success on the road in this competition has been against Italian and Welsh sides. Perpignan were made to look the laughing stock of Europe in the last round when they were beaten 9-8 by a gutsy Treviso side in Italy. That defeat is indicative of the Catalans' poor form away from the fearsome Stade Aime Giral. They couldn't even beat bottom side Albi on the road last month.

If Toulouse will parade the skills of Picamoles and Dusatoir on Saturday, then in comparison, Perpignan's back-row cupboard is bare. The Catalans have had a host of injuries and rely on a wet-behind-the-ears trio of Bertrand Guiry (21), Yohan Vivalda (21) and Yannick Parent, who is 23. Heaven knows what the recalled Munster pair of Denis Leamy and David Wallace are going to do to them at Thomond Park. It's probably fair to say that the Irish will boss the breakdown. As a result, Munster look bomb-proof in the match betting market.

To get round three started in the best way possible though, the bet of the weekend just has to be Glasgow to beat Gloucester at Firhill. Gloucester have certainly got better in the past few weeks, and a lot of that is down to the sheer bloody-mindedness of certain members of the squad who were just sick of losing.

A win against Leicester at Kingsholm signalled the turnaround, and a bonus-point defeat to Harlequins and a good win over Newcastle indicates that they have turned the corner. But I just can't understand why Glasgow are not at least five to six-point favourites for this clash. Biarritz, a vastly superior outfit to Gloucester right now, only just came away with a win in round one. If any more evidence is needed, the Cherry and Whites have won just one of their last 14 away matches.

New Scotland coach Andy Robinson is going to be at the game, and although Gloucester have a large Scottish contingent, and coach Bryan Redpath proudly wore the thistle as an international scrum-half, Glasgow are going to be busting a gut for this one. There is no way they should be anything shorter than [1.5] in my book.