Heineken Cup Betting Preview: Northampton can see off French visitors

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 15 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Perpignan come to Franklins Gardens with nothing to play for on Sunday - so can Northampton take advantage? Meanwhile, Munster could be underpriced for their trip to Italy. Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets from the weekend's Heineken Cup action.

The Betfair markets take a long time to mature when it comes to the latter stages of the Heineken Cup. Punters and layers alike refuse to put up or take prices until the teams are in, which, given that several sides go into Round Five with little to play for, is more than fair.

It can be a little frustrating, and some prices can be very silly indeed this early on, particularly for small money, but one layer looked to have it spot on in the Northampton game, offering the Saints at as short as [1.14] for their Sunday fixture against Perpignan. Without the team sheet, this is mostly academic, but even without the names of the 15 Catalans who will take to the turf at Franklin's Gardens, it is easy to make Northampton such a short price to see off their French visitors.

Although I got away with laying Perpignan in round three in the match betting market against Munster, it remains a fact that, save for their glorious semi-final defeat of Leinster in the 2003 Heineken Cup, Perpignan's road victories in this tournament have come at the expense of Welsh teams and Italian teams only.

The Catalans gave it their all when they travelled to Thomond Park a few weeks ago, and despite outscoring Munster by three tries to nil, they still went down 24-23, due to a virtuoso performance by Ronan O'Gara. That heroic effort must have taken a lot out of the reigning French champions, because nine days later Munster stuffed them 37-14 down at the Stade Aimee Giral, which up until that point was virtually impregnable.

Perpignan have been stuttering ever since, and even if they do pick a strong team for Sunday's fixture at Northampton, just the way they play suggests that the Premiership side can still prevail. If the French are to triumph, they are going to have to start well to give them the inspiration to sustain that effort. They are unlikely to be able to. In Perpignan's 18 away games since the start of 2009, they have held a half-time lead in just four of them.

In contrast, Northampton have won 17 of their last 27 games at Franklin's Gardens half-time/full-time. They lost only one of those matches, and that was against a team with a hell of a lot more at stake than Perpignan, who cross the Channel with nothing at all to play for.

Although there are no prices to go on, I suspect that Munster way well be under-priced for their mismatch with Treviso in Italy. All the rugby world will see the Irishmen as a shoo-in. Punters see sport very differently, however, but hopefully there will still be enough people out there to tee up a decent handicap price about the home side. Treviso were aided by inclement conditions when pushing Northampton very close in the last round, the Saints coming away with a an 21-18 victory at Stade Comunale Di Mongio. Many saw that as a fluke, but don't forget the Italians beat Perpignan there, too, earlier this season and twice cannot be attributed to luck.

I have no idea what handicap the Betfair brains will put up for this match, but the shortest I can push Munster is to between 22 and 25-point favourites - I'd go go bigger if I could. I know the Irishmen have to secure the bonus point in order to nail down qualification in Pool One, but once the four tries are on the board, their job is done, especially with Northampton to entertain next week. Others to consider on this weekend's card are Biarritz, who really should be favourites against Gloucester, and perhaps Sale with a start at Cardiff?

Tonight's action sees Edinburgh travel to Ravenhill for the Pool Four showdown with Ulster. Although Stade Francais rule the roost with 13 points, both of the Magners League teams are stuck behind on nine points each. A loss tonight and dreams of a knockout spot for either side is over. Considering Edinburgh have already won 16-13 at Ravenhill in the Magners League this season, and have beaten tonight's opponents 17-13 at Murrayfield earlier in the Heineken Cup, it is staggering to see the Scottish side trade at [4.2] and receive a 7.5-point start on the handicap - I couldn't give them more than 5.5 points.

For a start, Ulster haven't played since January 2nd. What's more, Edinburgh are priced up on their recent form that saw them lose the home and away clash for the 1872 Cup with bitter rivals Glasgow. Rob Moffat's men had a viral infection sweep through their camp during that double header, and were much improved when proving far too good for Cardiff last weekend. The heroic performances from their back-row underpinned that impressive 25-12 defensive victory, and Roddy Grant and Alan MacDonald are once again trotted out to shore up the defensive line.

Edinburgh must have a chance on the handicap, especially as this Ulster XV are not as good as the side that Edinburgh beat 16-13 at Ravenhill in September - Wallaby full-back Clinton Schifcofske and Tamaiti Horue miss out. Ulster got a real beasting, too, by Ireland's Grand Slam-winning defence coach, Les Kiss, on Monday, so there is every likelihood that both sides will continue to concentrate on keeping the other side out, meaning a tight, low-scoring encounter.