Heineken Cup Betting Preview: Dragons have great chance at big price

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Dragons have been almost impossible to beat at Newport this year, losing narrowly to Bath and Munster last season before embarking on an unbeaten run of eight games, all of which have been HT-FT wins."

They may have got a pasting last week but the Dragons are almost unbeatable on their own patch. Geoffrey Riddle believes that the markets are underestimating the Welsh side's chances of triumphing over French opponents this weekend.

Twelve months ago Leinster and Sale journeyed to France with high hopes of securing a Heineken Cup double over Castres and Montauban respectively.

Leinster had hammered Castres 33-3 at the RDS in round three, while Sale had annihilated poor old Montauban 36-6 at Edgeley Park. And yet, the two French sides had the last laugh, turning around those massive deficits to triumph in the return leg. I say the French sides had the last laugh, but in fact it was the layers who were tittering all the way to the bank as Leinster were chinned at [1.12] and Sale at [1.25]. Christmas had indeed come early.

Last year I touched on the double-header statistics since the ERC initiated the idea of the double header in the 1999/2000 tournament. The updated facts are that of the 120 double headers in the Heineken Cup, 68 teams have completed the double, which equates to almost seven teams each year.

The four big winners last weekend were Biarritz, who thumped the Dragons 49-13 at the Parc Aguilera, Northampton who put Treviso to the sword at Franklin's Gardens, the Ospreys who demolished Viadana 62-7 in Italy and London Irish, who scored a 36-3 away win at Brive. Of that losing quartet, the Dragons' chances of overhauling the Basques at Rodney Parade on Friday that interest me the most. I think Paul Turner's side have an outstanding chance at the likely odds of beating their visitors.

The Welsh region have been underestimated for the whole of 2009, winning on the high street layers' main handicaps around 73% of the time. They have been almost impossible to beat at Newport this year, losing narrowly to Bath and Munster last season before embarking on an unbeaten run of eight games, all of which have been HT-FT wins. Okay, so they were on the end of a real pasting down in the Basque stronghold last weekend, but Turner's side had two men sent to the bin and have been appalling away from home for some time.

They had won only four of their last 25 road fixtures prior to Sunday's capitulation. If you won't be swayed, at least consider holding off from backing the visitors until after half-time in the match betting market, or even have a lay-to-back trade. Biarritz haven't lead at the break in any of their last nine away matches.

Treviso's recovery mission is not without hope, either. They shocked European rugby to the core in round one, when beating 2003 finalists Perpignan 9-8 at home. It was a sensational result, but needs to be taken into context. Just nine months before, Perpignan travelled to Italy and hammered Treviso 48-16. Treviso and Viadana won't have things easy against Northampton and Ospreys though, because they are in tight Pools, where every point and bonus point could be crucial. These teams are not going to sit back if an avalanche of points are in the offing, and it's understandable that the high street layers are cautious to price these matches up. For what it is worth, I'd go Northampton -20 and the Ospreys probably -30.

The tie of the weekend has to be Sunday's clash between Munster and Perpignan in the rugged Catalan region. Munster are the past-masters of doing the double over teams, having registered six double-header victories. They only edged past Perpignan last week, however, winning 24-23, and they didn't cross the French whitewash at all.

If you look at Munster's away record this season, it makes pretty poor reading. One win in their last six, and that was the 22-20 success against the Scarlets. Although the Red Army has a pretty decent record in France, having won seven of their 19 encounters across the Channel, Clermont beat them twice in 2008. It's a possibility that Munster are just getting in to their stride this season, but Perpignan scored three tries last week, and could win with ease at the Stade Aime Giral, where they have lost just once in their last 43 matches in all competitions.