Heineken Cup Betting Preview: Can high-flying 'Quins avenge last season's beating?

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 04 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Harlequins may have matured this season, be going well in the Premiership and hungry for revenge, but Geoffrey Riddle doesn't believe Dean Richards' men are likely to become the fifth team to defeat Stade Francais in Paris.

Harlequins used to have a hooray-henry reputation off the field, which was firmly scotched when they were relegated in the 04/05 season. They have since become a much more grounded club. Not so their opposition in the Heineken Cup this weekend, the raffish and rakish Stade Francais, owned by billionaire Max Guazzini.

The Parisian club have been looking to the stars since Guazzini took over in the early 90s, and while they have had their successes domestically, they have generally come up short in Europe, having lost two finals in 2001 and 2005. So lofty are their ambitions, however, that they have hired the Stade de France for this fixture, something that should suit Harlequins given they are to play Leicester at Twickenham on December 27th.

Here's a little quiz for you. Stade Francais have played 36 European matches in Paris over the years. They have lost just four. Who were those teams? You'll be interested to know that three of them were English, and against Premiership sides Stade average a 14-point win at home. It would be fair to say that with Harlequins flying high in the Premiership at the moment, the handicap offered to the visitors would be somewhere in that region.

Last year, Harlequins were given a 20-point beating in Paris in a 54-point thriller in round one of the Heineken Cup. Things should be slightly different this time around as Dean Richards' side have matured immeasurably since then. It could be argued that Stade are not as good this year, but they come into this game having thumped Biarritz 32-13 down in the Basque country.

What characterised that win was the four tries in the second half - three in the final 15 minutes - which is something that Stade have done on numerous occasions this season. They put four past Montauban in the second half at the beginning of October, and three past Brive after the break a fortnight before that. Harlequins have generally been a first-half side this season - their magnificent comeback against Llanelli in round one of the Heineken Cup apart.

For those in-running traders keen to get with Stade, it may pay to wait for a drifting price before getting on the handicap offered up by Betfair. I don't believe that Harlequins are likely to join London Irish, Wasps, Leicester and Munster as the only teams to defeat Stade in the French capital.

From great home form, to magnificent away form. Bath have been sensational away from home this season, but they had their proud away record ripped from them by Harlequins last week. They have no comfort to fall back on this weekend either, with a fixture against Glasgow back at The Rec, which they have struggled to make a fortress out of this season.

Gloucester and Leicester have performed smash-and-grab raids on the beautiful Georgian ground this term, and even Newport-Gwent Dragons went close in round two of the Heineken Cup, eventually losing out 13-9.

Glasgow should present a sterner test than the Welsh minnows though as they sit proudly in second spot in the Magners League.

Sean Lineen's Warriors come into this fixture on a high having trounced Cardiff 28-0 last week. Although that scoreline may look impressive, don't forget that while the Blues were getting a pasting up at Firhill, their international contingent of Martyn Williams, Jamie Roberts, Tom Shanklin, Gethin Jenkins and No.8 sensation Andy Powell were duffing up the Aussies in the Millennium Stadium. Also, Cardiff rested Leigh Halfpenny, and former All Black Xavier Rush also missed out.

Glasgow's impressive status in the Magners League also rests largely with their home form, and not on the road, as their 15-8 defeat at the hands of lowly Connacht in September testifies.
Bath probably have nothing to fear here in terms of the actual result. Glasgow boast just two wins away from home in 30 Heineken Cup outings, and Bath appear to be playing good enough rugby at the moment to see off the Glaswegian threat.

The problem is trying to ascertain by how much they are going to lose by, and if previous handicaps are any guide, you'd be amazed if the visitors received anything less than a double-figure start. I'd go 14 points myself.

The Leicester match against Perpignan had much of the gloss taken off it when it was announced that Dan Carter would not be taking part. It also has bored the hell out of me, what with this whole Marius Tincu affair and whether Perpignan will appeal against his lengthy ban or not. How dull! Anyone not up to speed with it all should click here:

The action on the pitch, however, will not be dull, although curiously, Perpignan are on a losing run of eight defeats in England. That is likely to become nine against a bolstered Welford Road squad, bruising from a hurtful defeat to Sale at the weekend. This looks one for Betfair's 'multiples' bet. As do Leinster, Gloucester, Toulouse and Ospreys!