Heineken Cup Betting Preview: Back a juicy drop goal from Hodgson or O'Gara

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

There's an Ireland v England flavour to round two of the Heineken Cup, as Ulster, Leinster and Munster set about toppling the Premiership's dominance established last weekend, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

Bath's last-gasp defeat at Toulouse meant they were the only English team of the six who failed to win. It was a professional display by the Premiership teams, none more so than Sale's sensational drubbing of last season's Top 14 success story, Clermont.

Clermont scored the most tries in the French league last season with 92, but, as is their want this term, Sale shut out the Frenchmen, restricting them to just five Brock James penalties. Such is the nature of Pool 1, that Sale's assignment this Saturday looks just as tough, with a home tie against reigning champions Munster at Edgeley Park.

It looks a dour encounter on paper. Sale's sweeping defence has been the subject of much debate this season, with only the new-look London Irish breaching their try-line in the league. It is highly effective, and it helps that Charlie Hodgson and Luke McAlister, should he be fit, can keep the opposition penned in their half.

This is not a new system of play, and what is most interesting is that Munster have been past-masters of this technique ever since their fly-half, Ronan O'Gara, donned the red jersey in Limerick. All three kickers will be hoofing the ball to within an inch of the corner flag, and points punters will have a difficult time of it. All the world will be looking at the unders in this game, and although the market is not up yet, I'd be surprised if the biting point of trade is not at around the 36-38 mark. Anything higher than that, and you'd bite their arm off to go low.

The match prices look thin on the ground with Sale at [2.0]. Philippe Saint-Andre's side won the most line-outs last season in the Premiership, and top the charts this season, too, and if it does turn into a kick-fest, they are well-equipped to front up to a Munster machine that churns out away wins.

Where there might be a decent avenue to profit in this game though is in the first scoring play market. Hodgson kicked the most drop goals in the Premiership last season by a country mile, and we all know that ROG likes a drop goal. In what is expected to be a tight encounter, a juicy double-figure price on a drop-goal might be the order of the day.

Ireland's arm-wrestles against England teams continues with Leinster's encounter with Wasps at the RDS and Ulster's battle for Heineken Cup survival with Harlequins making up the treble.

Leinster nabbed a bonus-point from Edinburgh last week at Murrayfield, the first time that they had won there in five attempts. On the plus side, it is fair to say that Brian O'Driscoll looked a lot sprightlier than at any time last season, and the pack can at last pretend to mix it with the best on the European stage. Aussie flanker Rocky Elsom impressed with his handling and running, but most of all his power, especially when he knocked through 18st prop Allan Jacobsen.

On the flip side though, you can't but help think that Edinburgh gifted the win to their visitors. All four tries were scored from a long way out, and coach Andy Robinson, and indeed skipper Mike Blair, were furious after the win. "There was real disappointment at what we produced, especially in the first half," Blair said after the defeat. "We made four big mistakes and they scored four tries from them."

If that was indeed the case, then there must be value in a Wasps' success at [2.74]. The Irish side [1.51] have won only 68 per cent of their matches in Ireland in this competition and in their 12 matches against English teams there over the years, they average around a five-point win. Wasps, despite their dismal form this season, are by no means an average Premiership side, and their sensational victory at Leicester this season shows that they still have the gumption to win at the most forbidding grounds in Europe.

Last week's fireworks between Josh Lewsey and Danny Cipriani shows there is a real edge in training in Acton, and with both joking with each other at the spat after Lewsey scored against Castres, the pair can bring the fight to their hosts in the hope of success.