Heineken Cup Betting: Harlequins vs Leinster

Heineken Cup / Hugh Cahill / 09 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's the business end of the Heineken Cup. The weak have fallen and faded. The cream has risen to the top and there are no longer room for errors. One defeat and you're out. It's as simple as that for Harlequins and Leinster as they battle for a place in the last four. RTE Rugby commentator Hugh Cahill has the lowdown..

Leinster make the trip to Harlequins this weekend in the quarter finals of European club rugby's toughest and most prestigious competition and something tells me it's not going to have a happy ending.

It's always with great hesitation that I write off an Irish teams' chances in the Heineken Cup. Leinster away to Toulouse in 2006, Munster countless times against Gloucester, Sale, Biarritz et al have shown that it really doesn't pay to bet against an Irish team at this stage. Regardless of who the opposition is, they are always, always capable of a win. And so, applying that logic, there is nothing different about Leinster's chances this time out. They certainly are capable of a win in England. Problem is though, I don't think they will get one.

Harlequins are currently sitting in second place in the Guinness Premiership table. Played twenty, won thirteen, drawn one, lost six and with seven bonus points to their name they are only one point behind the Leicester Tigers. They are playing fast and furious rugby, strong and secure in the pack and with devastating pace and ability in the backline. They can score tries for fun and from almost anywhere on the pitch and they are in their current league position on merit. Out of all the teams left in the draw for the quarter finals, I would regard them as one of the toughest to face. Leinster will need to play at their very best to come away with a win - something we just haven't seen from them in a long, long time.

When I think back to Ronan O'Gara's famous post match interview after Munster's victory over Sale a couple of years ago, I still smile at the manner and sincerity of his convictions. For those of you who don't remember, O'Gara reckoned the players in the English league were no better than the Irish players playing for their respective provinces and he didn't understand what all the fuss over the Premiership was about. Munster have since won the Heineken Cup twice and Ireland are Grand Slam champions.

Never a truer word was spoken. Irish players are every bit as talented, professional and committed as their English counterparts and it has been proven time and time again. Leinster though, as they showed last Saturday night in Thomond Park, are not Munster. They have yet to scale the heights of the red army and in fact, still seem like a long way off doing it. O'Gara's famous words back in 2006 carry such weight simply because of what Munster have achieved since then. Leinster are still aspiring to be classed in the same league.

For all of Harlequins pace out wide, I think Leinster can match them. A huge amount depends on Michael Cheika's team selection. Why he chose to start Rob Kearney on the wing against Munster last weekend is beyond me. Shane Horgan in the centre? It didn't make sense, regardless of who was injured. The return of Brian O'Driscoll and Luke Fitzgerald should force Cheika's hand to pick the best starting backline at his disposal.

That for me is Contepomi at fly half, Darcy and O'Driscoll in the centre, Horgan and Fitzgerald on the wings and Kearney at full back. That backline can compete and better any other in the Heineken Cup. Where Leinster will struggle I fear is up front. Leo Cullen and Malcolm O'Kelly are just not a force in the second row. Too many times they go missing during games and fail to provide the strength and commitment that Leinster so desperately need. Far too often we've witnessed the performance of the back row carry that pack through 80 grueling minutes. Elsom, Heaslip and Jennings or O'Brien have done trojan work this season and managed it without much help from their tight five - Bernard Jackman aside. Cullen is the Leinster captain and O'Kelly must surely know his time as a player is almost up. If they cannot deliver this weekend then Leinster will really struggle.

What it all boils down to for me is whether Leinster can reach the heights and play the rugby we all know they are capable of. Can Michael Cheika instill a ferocity and aggression in his team that is at odds with his laid back personality? If the Dublin boys are ever to prove their metal and join Munster at the top of the mountain they have to dig deep and come up with a performance we have not seen in some time.

Because it's away, because Harlequins are a tough and talented side and because too much rests on the shoulders of an out of form Felipe Contepomi, I do not think they will win.

Recommended: 1 point Harlequins win @ [1.85]

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