Heineken Cup Betting: Carter will have his work cut out as Tigers seek revenge

Heineken Cup / Geoffrey Riddle / 11 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey Riddle reflects on the great moments in Heineken Cup history and delves into the double-header stats as he looks for clues as to how this weekend's fixtures might pan out...

The Heineken Cup is what makes club rugby special.

Since 1999, that intensity has had its own heightened focus in the month of December, as teams have been pitted in a head-to-head format through rounds three and four.
Down the years there have been some legendary ties, although none stands out greater in my mind than Leicester's domination of Wasps in 2004. The Tigers, who were marshalled superbly by Martin Johnson, completely outmuscled and out-thought Lawrence Dallaglio's Wasps, whose fabled blitz defence was unpicked two weekends in a row.

Toulouse and Llanelli provided a different spectacle in 2006. Llanelli had snuck a 20-19 victory at Stradey Park, and in the return leg, Phil Davies' men found themselves 24-3 down inside 24 minutes thanks to a Clement Poitrenaud hat-trick. What happened next was one of the greatest comebacks in rugby history, and Llanelli's 41-34 victory in the Stade Ernest Wallon rightly took the plaudits.

Round four offers the chance for teams to grab a bit of their own glory by completing a famous double; although you might be surprised by how often double dominance occurs.
Since the idea of a double-header was put into practice in 1999, there have been 108 back-to-back head-to-heads. Just over 56 per cent of those third-round victories were converted into fourth-round wins, and six of the twelve last year resulted in a double success.

So according to those stats, punters should be on the lookout for at least another six doubles this weekend. I appreciate that this is a giant assumption, but we should consider it as a little game. Of the 12 winners who tasted success last week, which six would you be laying and which would you be backing if your arm was forced?

The easy pickings are the Ospreys, who hammered poor Treviso 68-8 last weekend at the Liberty, and who are [1.01] to win at the Stadio Comunale di Monigo. Gloucester should similarly have no trouble at Kingsholm against Calvisano. Realistically, these games are the only two gimmies on the Heineken Cup coupon, and there are potential slip-ups for several odds-on pokes.

Although all three might win, I don't believe for a moment that all of Leinster [1.12] at Castres, Toulouse [1.19] at Newport and Sale [1.25] at Montauban will cruise through this weekend.

Sale look like lay material, especially given they have lost far more matches in France than they have won. Both Munster and Clermont had to work extremely hard to beat Montauban in earlier rounds, and in the Top 14 both Perpignan and Clermont once more, have struggled to break them down.

The spotlight falls firmly on Dan Carter this weekend, as the New Zealand fly-half has been drafted in by Perpignan in order to boost their flagging domestic and European campaigns. Carter will have his work cut out, too, as the Catalans aim to avenge last week's 38-27 loss at Welford Road.

Realistically it is difficult to discern what effect Carter can have after less than a week with his new team. Sure, he is probably the best fly-half in the world, but can he really just slot seamlessly into a team structure that is almost completely alien to him?

Last week Harlequins became just the fifth team to taste victory against Stade Francais in Paris in European competition, and just the third in the Heineken Cup after Leicester and Munster's wins there in 2001 and 2002 respectively. That 15-10 victory amongst all the hoopla of the can-can girls in the Stade de France presents Dean Richards' men with a golden opportunity of joining the double gang. Betfair punters see this as the favoured outcome as well, pricing up Quins at [1.85] for Saturday's confrontation at The Stoop.

As I see it, if my prices had to be the first in the 'back' queue in the match betting market for six of the 12 of last weekend's winning teams, I'd be opposing: Wasps at home to Edinburgh, Sale, Ulster at Parc y Scarlets, Leicester, Bath up at Glasgow, and possibly even mighty Munster at home to Clermont, although I can't make up my mind between them and Cardiff at Biarritz.

That leaves me wanting to duck laying Gloucester, Ospreys, Harlequins, Leinster, Toulouse at Newport and the Blues. Which six would you choose? You never know, The Tote may pick up on this and call it something like 'Pick Six...'