Guinness Premiership Round 19 Preview: Battles at the top and bottom

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Even with Charlie Hodgson, Sale's points totals have been poor

"As the relegation pressure has got to Sale, the total points in their matches have been constricted - their last six games at Edgeley Park have all pitched in at under 39 points. I can't have total points much higher than the 33-35 bracket for this."

Geoffrey Riddle looks at three Easter treats in the Guinness Premiership in the coming few days starting with an authentic relegation dogfight at Edgeley Park

It's Easter, and egg-chasers across the land are well served this weekend with three live games from which to earn a crust. First up on Friday, it's Sale's bitter relegation battle with Worcester that has alerted Sky's producers. Newcastle's 25-13 victory at Kingston Park over Gloucester on Wednesday has nicely turned the screw on these two teams ahead of this crunch encounter.

The Sharks sit two places above bottom-club Worcester, sandwiching Leeds in the middle by points difference only. It's an extremely uncomfortable situation to be in, and like at the end other end of the spectrum, in games such as World Cup finals for instance, the total points market for this fixture can hardly be pitched low enough. Excluding the seemingly unimportant LV Cup, Sale's home games this season have thrown up a total points average of just 33.5. It's a pitiful return for a team who have one of the best running fly-halves in the game in the shape of Charlie Hodgson. And as the relegation pressure has got to Sale, the total points in their matches have been constricted - their last six games at Edgeley Park have all pitched in at under 39 points. I can't have total points much higher than the 33-35 bracket for this.

Sale were a total shambles last time out against a rampant London Irish and it was only the second time in Premiership history that they have been blanked. The 38-0 scoreline barely reflected the Exiles dominance in that mis-match, with Sale really having only one attacking opportunity in the first half. In contrast, Worcester looked to have the measure of Leicester last weekend, and were right in the thick of things at half-time. The Warriors trailed Leicester 13-12 at the break before the flood gates opened, and it was simply a case of a mis-pass here and a little mistake there that cost Worcester a bonus-point.

Sale are certainly good enough to rank as at least five-point favourites for this crucial tie, which equates to a match betting price of around [1.55] in my book. Worcester are still without an away victory in the league this season. Some punters may take heart that out of all the Premiership teams, only London Irish have a better record in Stockport, but that was then, and this is now, and Worcester just don't look good enough under this sort of pressure to eke out a much-needed victory.

Brendon Venter mentioned that his Saracens side had taken a two-day break in Brighton before absolutely smashing Newcastle 58-15 last weekend. A beer or two seems to have loosened Sarries' nerves in the final furlong of the season and they played with a freedom rarely seen from them this campaign. Perhaps Martin Johnson should take note.

Their match-up with Gloucester at Kingsholm on Saturday looks a nightmare punting situation, with the West Country side looking to play their fourth game in 13 days. Until Bryan Redpath issues a Gloucester teamsheet, and Venter, too, you would surely have to leave this one alone.

And then to Easter Sunday, where a curate's egg of a Wasps side host London Irish in a crucial encounter that could have a serious impact on the play-off landscape. Irish sit fourth, four points to the good and a game in hand of Wasps in fifth. Having backed Wasps pre-season to win the play-offs, I'm hoping that the return from injury of England flanker Tom Rees will galvanise the squad to finish the season with their customary late rattle. But aside from their thrilling 24-19 win over Gloucester at Adams Park a month ago, Tony Hanks's side have been remarkably try-shy recently. It has been a factor of their play in a curiously inconsistent season, with only Saracens scoring fewer tries out of the top seven teams in the league.

Although London Irish bounced back to form last weekend, one swallow does not make a summer, and they are still without an away win in the league since beating Bath in November. On their day, they are one of the most capable teams in the league, but Toby Booth's side are yet to stamp a truly convincing performance in 2010. What we do know, is that the machine is beginning to splutter back to life and London Irish have scored 86 points in their last three games against Harlequins, Leicester and Sale. In that regard, they will be a real handful for Wasps, and from that perspective I couldn't make the home side much shorter than [1.65]. If London Irish get a handicap of around 5.5-6.5 on Betfair, I'm with the Exiles all the way.